Although Jewish settlers and the Israeli military might pull completely out of the Gaza Strip by late next year, the area commonly described as one of the most densely populated spots on earth and the main hotbed of Palestinian resistance, shows no visible signs of stability and calm. Perhaps the gravest threat to the pullout is Hamas’ position that it will continue attacks on Israelis even after an Israeli pullout from Gaza.
Hamas, and for that matter a coalition of all the Palestinian factions including Yasser Arafat’s Fatah, have condemned the disengagement as a fraud and a deception and as incomplete. Since Israel will maintain control of Gaza’s coast, airspace and border with Egypt, Hamas says, there is still an occupation and a need to fight it. Certainly a withdrawal from Gaza is not the end of the occupation. It is only a first step in a process of successive Israeli withdrawals, not the first, final and only withdrawal. As such, it must be accompanied by pullouts from the West Bank as well.
But Ariel Sharon, having delivered on the unilateral pullout promise made to President Bush in April, has in return America’s pledge that in any final peace agreement, the five main West Bank settlement blocks will be annexed and that Palestinian refugees will have no right of return to their homes, lands and properties in Israel.
Other challenges also await. Although the Israeli government has plans to offer cash incentives to Jewish settlers willing to leave Gaza starting from August this year, the offer is a multibillion-dollar headache. And there are many settlers who have sworn that they will not budge from Gaza no matter how much is offered.
Another point of contention: Israel will begin demolishing the homes of some 7,500 settlers once the withdrawal begins. The Israelis say they don’t want so-called terrorists to use them as safe havens. Other parties, such as the United Nations, say the homes should not be demolished so that they can be used as shelter by Palestinian refugees. Obviously, Sharon does not want to leave anything behind and thus, his scorched-earth policy.
But the withdrawal plan has put Sharon himself in hot water. He has been without a parliamentary majority since sacking two ministers over the Gaza plan while two more quit over the withdrawal. As a result, few Israeli commentators believe disengagement can be implemented with the present Israeli government. That will require a new coalition or even perhaps new elections. Sharon may not be around long enough. He should know sometime this week whether he will face indictment on corruption charges in connection with a failed property deal in the 1990’s.
The removal of a legal threat hanging over his head could free Sharon to begin talks with the left-wing Labor Party in order to bring it into a broad-based coalition.
But if he must, for his political life he will have a different set of priorities, one in which Gaza may not figure as prominently or perhaps at all.
