MANILA, 22 June 2004 — Philippines President Gloria Arroyo may have been declared the winner of last month’s election but there are doubts she can unite this fragmented nation of 84 million people and push through much needed reforms, analysts say.

With the economy in a shambles, Arroyo will go into her six-year term accused by many in the opposition camp of having “stolen” the election.

Arroyo, an economist, won the May 10 election over film star and high-school dropout, Fernando Poe, by more than a million votes. But the election itself and the conduct of the count have been called into question by opposition parties who have accused her of massive fraud.

At the same time there are rumors of forces lurking in the background manipulating the situation for their own vested political interests.

Throughout the three-month election campaign and six-week count in Congress, the local media has kept up constant reports of plans by military officers and politicians to foment social unrest in a bid to seize power and install a military junta.

No one has named names or presented hard evidence. But the fact that armed forces chief, Gen. Narciso Abaya, has ordered troops on full alert until further notice has only fueled the rumors.

His spokesman, Lt. Col. Daniel Lucero, said over the weekend the country is facing an “extraordinary situation”, calling the threat against the government “very real.”

“There are vested interests manipulating the situation and have been for some time.”

But who they are and who they represent he would not say.

Clarita Carlos, a political science professor with the University of the Philippines, said: “There will be challenges to her legitimacy which will detract from the much needed reforms the country needs.

“The best thing she could do is to form a government of national unity. She has spoken about it often enough and it might deflect some of the opposition protests.

“The people have had enough. We need to get on with nation building.”

A faculty colleague, Amado Mendoza said it is too early to say whether or not Arroyo will see her full term out.

“If the mandate she has apparently obtained is not going to be recognized, the problem she encountered during her first presidency will resurface.”

Arroyo came to power in January 2001 after populist president and former film star Joseph Estrada was thrown out in a military-backed middle class revolt.

“There are those in the opposition camp who question her legitimacy and this is finding some resonance among the restive factions in the military,” Mendoza said.

“Of course the big business and international community have, as I’ve noticed, closed ranks behind the presidency of Arroyo so that could be a plus for her. But these are the guys who do not initiate things.”

Mendoza also believes that a government of national unity would offer some hope and allow Arroyo to tackle some of the country’s more pressing economic and social issues.

Apart from the short-term challenge of raising state revenues and reducing debt, which now stands at 77 percent of gross domestic product according to the Asian Development Bank, she will need to remove the “protectionist” provisions of the 1987 constitution.

Economic Planning Secretary Romulo Neri told a business form in Manila recently: “Politics stand in the way of growth. It’s hard to do economic reform unless you reform politics.”

He said sustained economic growth of at least seven percent annually over the next seven years would be needed to cut in half the poverty level from 34 percent to 17 percent but the economy is likely to expand by only 5.0-6.0 percent this year.

One academic, who did not want to be named, said he expected some street protests but doubted they would last.

“You need money, lots of money to sustain a campaign of street action... And quite frankly I don’t see it happening.

“Moral outrage doesn’t get poor people out onto the streets.

“The street action that eventually brought President Joseph Estrada down in 2001 was mainly middle class led ... they were outraged.” Peter Wallace, an independent consultant, urged the opposition not to launch mass protests.

“The country doesn’t need it. The investment community doesn’t need it.

“But will the opposition see sense? I doubt it.”