NEW DELHI, 22 June 2004 — Given that the much talked-about Lahore Diplomacy of February 1999 between Atal Behari Vajpayee and Nawaz Sharif lasted barely three years, one could be forgiven for being skeptical about the durability of the nuclear understanding between India and Pakistan. But pessimism would be out of place. After holding expert level talks on nuclear confidence building measures in New Delhi, the two South Asian rivals have agreed to establish a hot line between their foreign secretaries “to prevent misunderstandings and reduce risks relevant to nuclear issues.”
An analysis of the joint statement issued after talks indicates that its diplomatic significance is not limited to its bilateral or regional impact. Rather it sends crucial signals to the world at large. And there is a striking parallel between factors that necessitated Memorandum of Understanding in Lahore (1999) and ones that have shaped present nuclear talks.
Nuclear tests carried out by the two nations in May 1998 raised global concerns about India and Pakistan entering the stage of Mutually Assured Destruction. The agenda for the present nuclear talks was chalked out after for years the two neighbors were a hair’s breadth from nuclear conflict.
The war-like atmosphere was provoked by an attack on the Indian Parliament on Dec. 13, 2001 by what India says were five Pakistani militants. But Pakistan refused to claim bodies of the militants killed in a 45-minute gun battle and rejected all charges. There followed the recall of the Indian ambassador to Pakistan, cessation in air, road and traffic between the two nations and other events which culminated in the massing of troops at the border.
Now, India and Pakistan are careful to display diplomatic cordiality toward each other. In the run-up to the Indian elections, no party indulged in any anti-Pakistan rhetoric to win votes. The ousted BJP-led NDA even hosted Indo-Pak cricket matches months ahead of their earlier schedule.
A primary objective of their present understanding is to convince the world that their nuclear potential is not war-oriented.
Critics of India and Pakistan’s nuclear proliferation might not be easily convinced that their nuclear power contributes to “stability.” Indian and Pakistan hope to soothe such apprehensions through their continuing bilateral discussions.
The world, particularly nuclear powers that are against the nuclear prowess of India and Pakistan, is likely to be taken aback by two major points in the statement. While they are going to welcome a “unilateral moratorium” reaffirmed in the statement, they are not likely to be comfortable with what that implies, namely that the freeze on further nuclear tests is only temporary. India and Pakistan have agreed that each can conduct further nuclear explosions if it deems that it is necessary in the “exercise of national sovereignty” and if “extraordinary events” jeopardize its supreme interests.
Nuclear powers will be at a loss to respond to another point in the statement. It expresses India and Pakistan’s desire for regular working-level meetings among “all the nuclear powers to discuss issues of common concerns.” Since the five major nuclear powers are profoundly opposed to the inclusion of India and Pakistan in the nuclear club, this carries potentially great diplomatic significance. India has always supported its proliferation drive by saying that it would pursue non-proliferation only when the Big Five do so. India has always been against vertical proliferation. Pakistan in turn has justified its nuclear drive because of India’s.
Whatever their differences over Kashmir and cross-border terrorism, India and Pakistan have joined hands when in taking a stand against the noise made by big nuclear powers about the negative implications of their nuclear capability.
