YOKOSUKA, Japan, 14 September 2004 — The most important issue in the Pacific-Asian region is the very real possibility that the United States, Japan and Taiwan are forming a tripartite axis to confront China. The United States is the source of 90 percent of Taiwan’s military equipment and they are currently negotiating an arm sales agreement that includes 8 diesel-engine submarines, 12 P-3C Orion anti-submarine aircraft and 6 Patriot Advanced anti-missile systems.

The US concerns over a possible invasion of Taiwan by China have resulted in an escalation of military support for this island. This support includes computer simulated exercises and training of some of Taiwan’s military personnel in addition to arm sales. By all indications if President Bush is re-elected this program will continue and may even increase.

The “one-China” policy is rapidly disappearing and is being replaced by plans and programs of war that include both the US and their close ally Japan.

Japan has enjoyed a relatively secure relationship with China since the Treaty of Peace and those two countries signed Friendship in 1978.

The treaty acknowledged the recognition of the government of the People’s Republic of China as the sole legal government of China and it promised adherence to a “one-China” policy. It also states that Japan will not develop relations with Taiwan that have any official standing. This was the Japanese policy toward Taiwan until 1999. In that year, the US and Japan entered into an agreement that addressed security guidelines in the region.

What was so revolutionary about this security agreement is that it was the first time since the end of World War II that Japan was not strictly confined to nonmilitary intervention in the Asian region. China’s interpretation was that the new guidelines were a shift in the US-Japanese military alliance from “defensive” to “offensive”.

In Japan the support for stronger relations with Taiwan has been growing. The Japanese refer to the fact that Taiwan has been a member of the World Trade Organization since 2002 and that they have completed, in their opinion, their “democratization” as reasons for improving ties with the island. As for Taiwan, their leader, Chen Shui-bian has actively pursued support from the United States. Just a few months after his first election in 2000, he began a series of trips to the US and he has encouraged and hosted visits to the island by American congressmen. Since his narrow re-election victory in March 2004, Chen Shui-bian has continued to encourage “pro-democracy” forces in Taiwan.

The pro-Taiwan policy by the US has resulted in President Bush ratifying 5 arm sale packages including the arms mentioned above. In May, the Pentagon published an assessment report on the power of the People’s Liberation Army of China. The report showed a number of weaknesses in the Taiwan military program and it recommended that Taiwan strengthen its “defensive” capability.

The Chinese reaction has been fast and furious. Chinese Vice-Foreign Minister Zhou Wenzhong recently said that the Taiwan issue was the most serious topic confronting Sino-US relations. He said, “We’re especially concerned about the sales of large quantities of advanced weapons to Taiwan and the enhancement of military ties between the United States and Taiwan. In so doing, Taiwan independence forces will be emboldened to go down the road to Taiwan independence as far as possible”. Quoting a late Chinese leader he stated, “If this is mishandled it could become an explosive issue and the Chinese people cannot and will not swallow such a bitter pill”.

Chinese newspapers are filled with condemnations of the increased military and political support to Taiwan from both Japan and the US that from their perspective amounts to interference in internal affairs. China considers Taiwan a Chinese province that is simply allowed some broad parameters both economically and politically. Taiwan is part of China and if the political elements continue to push for independence, China has made it very clear they will do what is necessary to keep the island under their control.

The Japanese are such close allies to the US that they have troops in Iraq. If President Bush is re-elected there is no reason not to believe that his outright policy of the “exportation of democracy” will continue. How can Taiwan not be included in this program? All of these factors are leading up to a confrontation in the Pacific-Asian region between China and the US, Japan, Taiwan and possibly South Korea.

The year 2006 is the date that was used for the imaginary military conflict across the Taiwan Straits during the recent exercise. Unless this tense situation is defused, that year’s war game may be real. 0

— Adrienne McPhail is an American journalist based in Yokosuka, Japan. http://www.homepages.cybernet.it/worthington-agency