During the past year or so a new word has entered the popular vocabulary in Afghanistan. It is “intikhabat” (elections) and one of the select groups of words shared by Afghanistan’s two major languages, Persian and Pashto. Many Afghans admit that they do not know quite what it means, but almost all believe that “intikhabat” is a magic key to a better future.
Tomorrow over 10 million Afghans, men and women, who have registered to vote will have a chance to test the magic key by going to the polls. At stake is the post of the president of the republic which, in Afghanistan’s recently ratified new constitution, wields great executive power.
Just a couple of years ago the suggestion that Afghanistan might one day hold elections would have sounded fanciful. The Taleban, representing one of the most vicious forms of religious fascism, regarded any participation by the people in decision-making as “un-Islamic”. All power belonged to Mulla Muhammad Omar, the self-styled Emir Al-Momeneen (Commander of the Faithful) who claimed infallibility. Matters got worse when Osama Bin Laden, the now fugitive terrorist mastermind, soft-soaped the one-eyed Mulla into fancying himself as a caliph for all Muslims.
In a recent statement , apparently Xeroxed somewhere in Pakistan, the disappearing mulla threatens to kill not only the candidates in tomorrow’s elections but also anyone who dares go to the polls. The remnants of Osama’s gang have added their voice to Mulla Omar’s threats to disrupt the election tomorrow.
The remnants of the Taleban and Al-Qaeda are not the only ones who see elections as the death of their dreams for a return to power in Afghanistan. Tomorrow’s election could close a chapter of Afghan history in which different brands of despotism competed for power. The various leftist groups that had plagued Afghan politics since the mid-1950s until their defeat in 1992, see the election as the end of the road for them. Afghanistan will never again become a “people’s democratic republic” ruled by “the vanguard of the proletarian revolution.” The election will also bury religious fascists such as the so-called Hizb Islami (Islamic Party) of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, and its splinter faction led by Yunus Khalis. The election will also write the political obituary of so-called moderate Islamists such as Burhaneddin Rabbani, who served as president of a coalition government in Kabul in the early 1990s.
Since its liberation from the Taleban, Afghanistan has embarked upon a slow but steady recovery from almost three decades of foreign occupation, civil war and fanatical rule. This year income per head per annum rose to $240, compared to under $200 in 2001. Unemployment, meanwhile, has fallen from an estimated 60 percent of the labor force to around 40 percent.
More importantly, perhaps, Afghanistan has managed to absorb almost four million refugees returning home, mostly from Pakistan and Iran.
There is no doubt that terrorists of all denominations will do all they can to disrupt tomorrow’s election, especially in the southeast of the country where central government forces have only a tentative presence. The terrorists have already killed 12 election workers and injured more than 100 others. But they failed to prevent the main candidates from campaigning.
According to most polls, the current interim President Hamid Karzai is posed to win tomorrow. Karzai has proved himself to be a talented politician. Not only has he managed to unite the Pushtun, some 38 percent of the population, behind his candidacy, but he has also succeeded in splitting the ethnic Tajiks, some 32 percent of the population, by winning endorsement from several prominent Tajik leaders. Nevertheless, at least two other candidates appear posed to make an impression. One is Yunus Qanooni, a charismatic former freedom fighter who is likely to win a good part of the votes from his ethnic Tajik community. The other is Abdul-Rashid Dostum, once a Communist militia commander but now the godfather of the ruling elite within the ethnic Uzbek community.
For tomorrow’s election to succeed in setting a pattern in Afghanistan it is important that the losers accept the results. This is why recent attempts by the Karzai camp to intimidate the supporters of Qanooni and Dostum must be regarded as regrettable. Questions may also be asked about circumstances under which Afghan refugees in Iran and Pakistan will be casting their ballots. The 750,000 refugees who have registered to vote in Pakistan are expected to vote massively for Karzai. No one knows whether they would be doing so because of their personal convictions or as a result of intimidation and bribery.
In Iran, some 600,000 Afghan refugees have registered to vote. Unlike their counterparts in Pakistan, these Afghans have been under pressure to vote against Karzai, who has always been regarded by the mullah in Tehran as “ Washington’s man.”
To be sure, a single election will not solve all of Afghanistan’s problems. The country still faces a serious terrorist threat. There are also too many armed groups on the loose. The opium trade remains a big headache for the government. Promises of foreign aid remain largely unfulfilled.
The United States, with some 20,000 soldiers, remains the biggest military presence in the country. But the American force is used almost exclusively to hunt down the remnants of the Taleban and Al— Qaeda rather than helping the broader task of developing a secure environment.
Societies that adopt elections as a means of resolving political conflicts and broadening the base of decision-making do so at great risk to their peace and stability. And there is no guarantee that a society that has adopted elections will not, in a moment of disappointment with democracy, not revert to dictatorship in one form or another. After all Hitler won the 1933 election at a time Germans saw “too much democracy” as symbolized by the Weimar Republic as the cause of all their woes.
Having said all that it is important to remember where Afghanistan was two years ago and where it is today. Afghanistan’s first ever election should be a source of inspiration for all those who believe that a judicious mix of military force, economic aid, and political will can produce miracles in nation-building.
