CAIRO, 7 January 2005 — Nine months before a referendum to choose Egypt’s president, the state newspaper Al-Ahram has announced the result on its front page — Hosni Mubarak will be re-elected for another six years.
“President Mubarak will take the oath of office at this historic session (of parliament), signaling the start of a new presidential term,” the paper said.
The story prejudged the roles that the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP), Parliament and the Egyptian people are supposed to play in deciding whether Mubarak, in power since 1981, should stay in office till 2011.
Not so fast, say many Egyptians, who more than at any time since Mubarak came to power are challenging the fundamentals of a system which gives them only a bit part in the drama.
Prominent people have stepped forward to make a symbolic challenge to Mubarak and an unusual demonstration in central Cairo last month said no to any fifth term for the 76-year-old president or any transfer of power to his son Gamal.
“The mood of the country is for change — a new atmosphere, new institutions, new leadership,” said Mohamed El-Sayed Said, political analyst at Cairo’s Al-Ahram Center.
In frank comments published in the independent newspaper Al Masry Al Youm at the New Year, politicians and activists took off their gloves and went straight for the jugular of a political elite which sometimes gives the impression their power is a privilege rather than a burden.
“Egyptian public opinion and the political forces have had their fill and are ready for disobedience and to come out on the streets, as in Ukraine,” said sociologist Saadeddin Ibrahim, one of three symbolic candidates for the presidency.
But analysts say the dissidents have no chance of preventing the ruling party nominating Mubarak or stopping him from winning a one-candidate referendum in September.
Under the existing system, Parliament nominates the sole candidate for the presidency in May and Egyptians then vote yes or no to the assembly’s choice. Few people bother to vote.
But with talk of political reform in the air across the Middle East, it becomes harder and harder for those in power to maintain that business can continue as usual.
At regular six-yearly intervals, the system has worked like clockwork, making Mubarak the longest-serving head of state since the overthrow of the monarchy in 1952. The two previous presidents died in office relatively young, long before any serious challengers threatened their power. This time, however, Mubarak’s age and long presidency have started to count against him and the Middle East media revolution of recent years has undermined the government’s monopoly over information.
Satellite television stations like Al Jazeera and Al Arabiya, viewed in millions of Egyptian homes, treat Mubarak as just another politician. New daily newspapers offer alternatives to the Soviet-style reports in the state-owned press.
The US campaign for political reform in the Middle East, though widely derided in the region as a sham, has contributed to the new atmosphere by making it easier for people to talk in public about the flaws of their leaders. “People are becoming more challenging. They are expressing more their demands and their restlessness,” Hala Mustafa, editor of the quarterly Democracy Review, said.
