NAIROBI, 10 August 2005 — Khartoum and the ex-rebel Sudan People’s Liberation Movement must act decisively and with international aid if a landmark peace deal is to survive the death of former guerrilla chief John Garang, an influential policy institute said yesterday.
Without concerted steps to hold the SPLM together after Garang’s death last month and government moves to restore stability in the wake of the violence it sparked, the accord that ended Sudan’s 21-year north-south civil war may fall apart, the International Crisis Group said.
“The key to implementing the peace deal John Garang negotiated is for the SPLM to hold together,” said John Prendergast, an ICG adviser who specializes in Sudan issues. “If the movement unravels, the peace agreement will as well.” Garang’s demise in a July 30 helicopter crash “creates an opening for spoilers on all sides to exploit any signs of uncertainty,” the ICG said in a report. “The country is at risk of eventually losing a peace agreement that was already looking somewhat shaky,” it said, noting that while the SPLM quickly installed a successor to the charismatic Garang his loss would “be hard to overcome.” “There is no question the SPLM is weakened,” it said, adding that the consequences of Garang’s death on the group would likely be felt beyond southern Sudan and the north-south peace deal.
“It is now somewhat less likely to contribute in a major way to resolving the war and humanitarian catastrophe in Darfur or solving the simmering problems of eastern Sudan,” the ICG said, urging the international community to step in. “Key international players ... will have to do much more to help the parties save (the accord),” it said, calling for moves to end clashes between northerners and southerners, keep the SPLM united and boost support for the peace deal.
The United States, Britain and Norway — the three main foreign backers of the pact — have a “particular responsibility” to assist but so does the United Nations which is deploying a 10,000-strong peacekeeping force in the south, it said. The UN Security Council must respond quickly to any delay in implementation of the deal, under which southern Sudan will enjoy six years of autonomy before holding a referendum on secession, especially from elements in the Sudanese government that fought the pact in the first place, the ICG said. “More must be done to ensure that hard-line elements in Khartoum opposed to the (agreement) do not exploit Garang’s death to back away from its strict implementation.”
Sudan’s Second Vice President Ali Osman Taha arrived in Juba yesterday to meet the new leader of Garang’s group ahead of his swearing-in this week as first vice president. In addition to discussing details of Thursday’s ceremony in Khartoum with Salva Kiir, Garang’s successor as head of the SPLM, Taha told reporters he would offer condolences to Garang’s widow, Rebecca. “I am here to make condolences to the widow of Dr. John Garang and the SPLM and the people of Juba,” he said on arriving in Juba, which will serve as the capital of autonomous southern Sudan under the terms of a landmark peace deal he signed with Garang in Kenya in January.
