“Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because Fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn’t.”

-— Mark Twain, American humorist/author (1835-1910)

“Lebanese prosecutors filed preliminary criminal charges Thursday against four pro-Syrian generals in the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.”

-— Associated Press, Sept. 1, 2005

Friday marked 200 days since former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri was assassinated. Ah, the joys of the passive voice, the absence of attribution.

In some Arabic dailies, analysts muse that UN investigator Mehlis’ findings might spark a resurgence of deadly car bombings, high-profile murders, and unexplained explosions. A rumored “hit list” seems, as demonstrated by prior hits, to include Syria’s allies and enemies. Characters as diverse as Michel Auon, Nabih Berri and Walid Jumblatt rarely leave their heavily fortified residences; Issam Fares, Gebran Tueni and Sa’ad Hariri have taken refuge in Paris. Even Mehlis was reported to be shrewdly timing a few days out-of-town to avoid his own untimely demise.

There is good reason to exercise extreme caution.

Who murdered independent journalist Samir Kassim, Communist leader George Hawi, and attempted to dispatch with Deputy Prime Minister Elias Murr? Who set off a blast just hours after Condoleezza Rice departed Beirut, and several others in the preceding months?

Could George Bush, intent on covering up the Iraq debacle, set out to destabilize Lebanon and justify toppling Bashar Al-Assad? Or could Ariel Sharon be targeting Bashar to distract the world from Gaza disengagement, colony expansions in the West Bank and his stranglehold on Jerusalem? Perhaps King Abdallah of Jordan, tired of cold relations with his northern neighbor, concocted a scheme sure to push Bashar into a corner, perhaps even into exile. Was Jacques Chirac so distraught when Damascus snubbed French business ventures that he laid a diabolical trap sure to draw American firepower, whether diplomatic or military?

Ah yes, but of course. It’s all a ploy to undermine the last remaining bastion of Baathism and Arab nationalism, a conspiracy to topple the only hold-out against American hegemony in the region: Syria.

After all, Damascus has no reason to foment trouble in Lebanon, or elsewhere.

The Syrian economy is humming; the long-anticipated EU Association Agreement is finished; the home front is a model of sectarian harmony; political reforms ushered in greater public participation; religious extremism is unheard of; border surveillance and interdiction of insurgents has cemented ties with Washington and Baghdad; and warm relations with Beirut after the troop withdrawal have elicited regional and international praise.

Oh, yes, and Damascus is fully and completely cooperating with the UN investigation.

Then again, if any of the above were true, then perhaps there would be no crime for Mehlis to investigate.

Pure fiction, of course, but not fantasy. Bashar had options. It scarcely matters whether it he himself or his advisors who was ultimately responsible for halting progress at home and squandering opportunities abroad. The damage done is just the same.

What Mehlis may encounter if he continues to dig and Bashar begins to cooperate (he has nothing to hide, right?) is a set of cross-border alliances that were designed to maintain control, eliminate dissent, and net the maximum profit from Lebanon’s occupation.

Clearly Hariri, though fairly circumspect about democracy, wanted Syria out. Otherwise his vision of Lebanon, whether you define that as his personal pursuit of political power or his long-term economic plan to revitalize the country, was in considerable jeopardy.

Damascus’ inner circle, overconfident in Washington’s international isolation and preoccupied with internal divisions, set its own trap: Extending President Emile Lahoud’s term; rejecting two separate French bids for lucrative commercial contracts; occupying Lebanon on the flimsiest of pretenses; denying that Saddam’s relatives were in-country only to turn a few over when it seemed expedient to do so (which just gave ammunition to the desperate Iraqi WMD fanatics, like Dick Cheney and Don Rumsfeld); and doing its part to sow instability in Iraq, or at the very least assist those determined to do so.

Who could blame Hariri for simply taking advantage of Bashar’s missteps? Then, when forced to rubber-stamp Lahoud’s extension, he resigned.

That was a step too far. Hariri crossed one of Damascus’ red lines. Perhaps (in deference to Mehlis) a senior official thought it best to cross Beirut’s: Use massive retaliation and restore fear to the Lebanese polity.

Who could have predicted the outcome? No one. Not Bush or Sharon or Abdallah or Chirac. Not even Lebanese. And certainly not the mastermind(s) behind the attack.

With a handful under arrest, the guilty parties may feel the noose tightening. The innocent usually don’t go out of their way to appear guilty. So why shouldn’t Bashar turn over whomever Mehlis requests?

If he himself is not complicit, he should use this opportunity to clean house. Syria’s Foreign Minister Farouk Al-Sharra’ is fond of citing UN resolutions that Israel has ignored. Damascus should demonstrate that an Arab nation is heeding the will of the international community.

That would be a bold stroke for the “cause”, which the Baath regime is fond of championing in word but, rarely, deed.

Let’s get the spotlight back on Sharon, colonies and the walling off of Jerusalem’s Palestinian population. Let’s focus on Palestinian economic development in Gaza, reviving the 2002 Beirut peace plan, stabilizing Iraq (what should be an opportunity for regional cooperation and coordination), and investing oil surpluses to develop the potential of Arab peoples across the region.

Until Mehlis’ investigation is complete, and it isn’t without Syria’s full cooperation, all these issues get far less attention than they deserve. With Damascus marginalized for stonewalling Mehlis, a significant Arab voice is absent. That’s simply not helpful.

Bashar can set things right, for Lebanon, Syria and the rest of the region. But he has to sacrifice what many suspect are rogue elements in his midst. That’s the right decision, not only to satisfy UN demands but to secure his own future.