Egypt has recently witnessed developments unparalleled in the past 53 years. President Hosni Mubarak’s tenure has ended as he opted to hold free elections to elect a new president. This heralds the birth of the second republic in Egypt.

Before the military coup of July 23, 1952 the prime minister was elected through parliamentary elections. The leader of the majority party that won the elections was designated as prime minister.

After the revolution and announcement of the republic, the military leaders abolished the political parties and a system of single party rule was established. This meant only men with government’s support would win. The presidential election was a kind of referendum on a single candidate designated by the Parliament. No opposition parties were allowed to participate. The legislative body of the Parliament was operating under the executive authority. Jamal Abdul Nasser worked under this system. Anwar Sadat, who followed Nasser, however, permitted the return of political parties. His policies resulted in the emergence of a number of political and opposition parties on the domestic scene.

However most of the new parties did not impress the people because of varying reasons. Some of the parties represented some particular schools of thought or ideology that did not conform to the traditions and values of the Egyptian people and thus could not become popular. President Hosni Mubarak continued the administrative style of his predecessors and did not make any change in the internal political setup. However he gave wider press freedom allowing newspapers to air people’s views and opinions. A major reform brought by Mubarak was the change in the Clause 76 of the Egyptian Constitution pertaining to the election of the president. It meant freedom for all citizens in the country to contest for the top post. Thus he restored a freedom to the people that was taken away 53 years ago. There were, of course, some conditions that the candidates should fulfill in order to become eligible for contesting the election. A candidate was required to file his nomination with the presidential election commission. After examining the nomination files the commission accepts only 10 candidates. They should be presidents of political parties in the country.

An interesting case associated with the present elections was that a voter sued a candidate challenging his eligibility to contest the elections, as his presidency of the party he represented was not approved by the party members. The lower court ruled just three days before the election that he was not eligible to run. However he appealed in the High Court to review his case. The upper court reversed the verdict of the lower court and confirmed the candidate’s eligibility.

Though only 15 days were allowed for the election campaign it was very close fight involving mainly three candidates. They were President Mubarak, leader of the National Democratic Party, Dr. Noman Juma, president of the Wafd Party and Dr. Ayman Noor, president of Al-Ghad Party. Most other candidates did not have any popular base worth mentioning.

Mubarak had a clear advantage in the propaganda by virtue of his position and control over the media, and over the provincial governors and other administrative heads in the countryside. The party has its base in all the villages, as it has been the ruling party for the past 53 years.

On the other hand Wafd is the oldest party in the country. It has a tradition of fighting against the British colonial power. It could also boast that it was the party that formed the first constitutional government in 1923.

Ghad party was founded by some dissidents of the Wafd and it wielded only a limited influence among the people compared to other parties.

It is hard to predict who would win the elections though it would be known by today. However the Egyptian people are a “valley people” with qualities of a people settled in a fertile agricultural valley. They do not like adventurism or abrupt changes and mostly prefer what they are familiar with. Their disposition will undoubtedly affect the choice of their president.

It is likely that Mubarak will be the next president if the people do not want change.