EGYPT’S first multicandidate presidential election has undoubtedly been historic. Those who took part in the election, even those who voted for President Hosni Mubarak for a fifth six-year term of office were, whether they recognized it or not, were actually voting for change. This is because there is recognition, even among senior figures in the Mubarak administration, that Egypt’s economic and social development has come to be trammeled by the almost total dominance of one political force, the National Democratic Party (NPD).
Only Mubarak has both the authority and the ability to guide the country to move in an orderly fashion to multiparty democracy. The presidential elections themselves were the key first installment in this process. It really matters not that there have been allegations of electoral impropriety. Irregularities are not unknown, even in US presidential elections. Egypt is now set on the path for change which many in the government will hope can be managed carefully and peacefully.
It is no reflection on the other contenders, including Ayman Nour of the Ghad Party, to say that had anyone of them won the presidency, Egypt would have been exposed to a sudden and destabilizing transition which might well have been exploited by terrorist extremists or other interest groups.
It looks, from partial reports, that, in certain regions, the number of Egyptians who bothered to vote was low. That confirms the need for change to a political system in which people can believe that their vote will count. The unfamiliar spectacle of street rallies and criticism of government and officials during the electoral campaign ought to convince many ordinary Egyptians that real change is in the air.
Less easy to convince, however, are rank and file members of the NDP who have become used to the system of single-party political patronage which has underpinned both the extensive civil service and state-owned industry and banks. The days of the privileges and protection that went with loyal service to a ruling group look to be numbered. Yet one of the factors that drove the reformists within the administration has been the extent to which this ossified system has stymied economic reforms and inhibited commercial growth. Though it once served a legitimate purpose in allowing the NDP to lay the foundations for a modern Egyptian state, it is time to move on.
Any political change carries risk but the Mubarak administration has clearly calculated that eschewing change would have brought even greater risks. The process of change has been under way for the past ten years, with far-reaching economic liberalization, including privatizations and new capital markets legislation. There remain, however, serious social and economic challenges which can no longer be met by the existing system.
History may well show that Mubarak’s vision of a carefully controlled transition to multiparty democracy is as important a watershed in Egypt’s life as the Nasserite revolution itself.
