ON Sunday German voters voted themselves a headache. SPD Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder lost narrowly to his CDU challenger Angela Merkel and neither is in an obvious position to form a governing coalition. For the embattled Schroeder — who clawed back from a 30-point opinion-poll deficit a month ago — to lose by just three parliamentary seats seems a considerable achievement, not least because he had called this general election after his socialists lost power in North Rhine-Westphalia after 39 years. When the hustings began, the chancellor was widely expected to take a final drubbing. Merkel’s campaign was, however, affected both by a series of gaffes and also her lack of charisma in comparison with Schroeder’s well-tanned charm and political adroitness.
Those who believe that the ambiguous outcome of the election demonstrates that German voters are unprepared to accept further reforms to their rigid labor market and overgenerous welfare system are missing an important point. The process of reform began in earnest with Schroeder’s Agenda 2010 program. Germany is certainly further down the path of fundamental change than France. Unfortunately, a key product of this process, the Hartz laws on the reform of the key Federal Labor Agency have not had the anticipated effect of creating more jobs. Rather, employers have taken advantage of the new flexibility to shed labor as they attempt to control costs and remain internationally competitive.
The question many German voters in fact asked themselves was whom they trusted more to get on with the process. The CDU reform program certainly promised to be more radical and swifter than that undertaken by the SPD. At the same time, although the socialists have already enraged union bosses, it may have been reckoned that they had a better chance of maintaining consensus — so important to Germans — and negotiating change gradually. For young voters in particular, Merkel’s tougher approach was perhaps too reminiscent of Britain’s mold-breaking Mrs. Thatcher.
Germany’s problem now is that both leading parties are claiming victory after Sunday and must cast around to build a coalition within the next 30 days. There is already speculation that, in the end, a grand 447-seat CDU/SPD coalition will emerge as happened once before in 1966. While this may satisfy voters’ longing for consensus, it is hard to believe such a partnership would be durable or very effective since each will seek the opportunity to return to the electorate for a mandate.
Worse, democracies need strong oppositions to challenge and test a government’s policies. It would be unhealthy to leave this job to the three small parties with a mere 116 seats. Finally, since both Schroeder and Merkel lost in this election, it seems unlikely that either will feature in any grand coalition that may emerge. Sunday’s biggest loser has turned out to be the German people themselves.
