IF there were no extraneous issues, the political and economic integration of Turkey into the European Union would be challenging enough. The country has changed radically in the last 20 years. The minimum 10 years needed for preparation for EU membership will bring further profound changes.
Unfortunately it is now clear that economic and political criteria are not the only things on the mind of some EU states. A core bloc of three countries — Austria, Germany and France — is opposed to Turkey’s membership for reasons which, however they may be dressed in diplomatic language, are racist. The 25 states in the EU are all nominally Christian. Though for a thousand years frequently at war with each other, they share a common cultural heritage. While constitutionally a secular state, most Turks are Muslim and although the Ottoman Empire played an important role in the formation of modern Europe, it was the role of a powerful outsider rather than an active participant.
The opposition of French, Austrian and German voters as well as their governments, appears to be visceral. There is little consideration being given to the alluring new internal market consisting of more than 70 million Turks nor of the immense economic impetus that the hardworking and eager country could bring to Europe. Perversely, it is the Hungarians, Greeks and Poles, historic enemies of the Ottoman Turks, together with the British, who are most in favor of Turkish EU membership. They perhaps also see how the inclusion of Turkey could broaden the security of the Union — which was one of the prime original objectives. After all, throughout the Cold War, the European members of NATO were happy to rely on the major contribution made by Turkish arms.
The unseemly Austrian rejection of Turkey’s application just days before the start of formal accession talks could therefore harm the EU as much as it harms Turkey. Ever since the first formal application under the Özal government 25 years ago, pro-Europeans in Turkey have been working hard to win over a skeptical Turkish population to the European ideal. Turkey has made immense strides though certainly much remains to be done. A rejection now, however, will confirm the skeptics and could lead to a profound realignment of Turkish foreign policy. There are already those in Ankara who believe the country should promote a political and economic bloc with the Turkic republics of the former Soviet Union; this would number some 400 million.
The danger of a Turkey cast adrift from its European ambitions is that internally it could become prey to the old tensions which saw the country on the brink of civil war 30 years ago. These produced the country’s third military takeover. The Turks are proud and prickly and though they have borne snubs from some EU members for years, they have preserved a dignified patience.
Now the intemperate rejection by Austria, which holds the EU presidency next, may well be the last straw. The Turks may now begin asking themselves if they really want to join a union of bigots.
