THERE is a new sense of urgency about Iraq. That is clear from the deliberations of the Arab League’s ministerial committee on Iraq which met in Jeddah. Understandably so. Iraq is a total disaster.
The list of afflictions grows daily longer and more horrible. The country faces possible civil war and disintegration; violence is endemic; sectarianism is at a murderous all-time high; outside interference is becoming all the more evident; and there is a real danger that Iraq’s neighbors will be sucked into the mire — if only to contain and resolve it. It is Lebanon all over again — only much worse; because this time, the power vacuum provides a base and breeding ground for terrorists who have international plans. What makes matters so urgent is that there are only 11 days until the referendum on a constitution that should theoretically unite the country and open a new and peaceful chapter in the country’s history — but which is set to increase the sectarian divide and make peace an even more distant prospect.
The Sunni community does not trust the government; it feels it will be marginalized and penalized by the constitution. Iraq has no hope of emerging from the present bloodshed if such a significant section of the community feels it has no stake in its future. Iraq needs a lifeline if even greater catastrophe is to be averted. It needs it now. If the constitution fails because of the effective Sunni veto, it could trigger an anti-Sunni backlash and civil war that the insurgents have tried to create by their suicide attacks on the Shiites.
But equally, if there is a “yes” vote in enough provinces, it could also be as much of a disaster. The Sunnis will feel cheated and bitter. That will act as a recruitment call for the insurgents. The Arab League is the only hope of a lifeline. The Kingdom has proposed a meeting of all Iraqi factions under the league’s auspices in order to bring about consensus on the constitution.
Eleven days is not a long time for that. But it has to be tried. It will require concessions but at least the Iraqi Sunnis know that Saudi Arabia and the other countries on the ministerial committee will do everything to ensure that they have a definite role in a future Iraq.
What is encouraging is that, despite the intemperate comments of Iraq’s interior minister, the Iraqi government itself wants an Arab League lifeline; it realizes the need to bring the Sunni community back into dialogue. Foreign Minister Hoshiyar Zebari made that clear in Jeddah after the ministerial committee meeting. The Kingdom will do its best, given the desperately short time to make that happen. It is certainly not going to let any individual minister’s personal, and clearly unrepresentative, rantings get in the way of its responsibility to help its neighbor.
Time is running out for peace in Iraq. Neither the Iraqi government, nor Washington can make consensus happen. The Arab League is the only body that may be able to make a difference. But at this late hour, even that is not guaranteed.
