THERE are three dangers arising from the apparently deadly H5N1 version of bird flu which is now in Turkey and Romania. The least of these dangers is probably the virus itself. Of greater concern are the reactions of politicians and the conclusions drawn by the man in the street about the real threat to his family and friends. If even medical men disagree about the threat of this or that sickness, what is a layman to think? In recent years we have been told that AIDS or SARS would cut a deadly swathe through the entire world. Though AIDS is indeed wreaking devastation in Sub-Saharan Africa, it has not become the predicted global pandemic. Then there was SARS which, we were told, might kill millions. Millions did not perish. Depending on which medical authority you choose to believe, SARS did not become a pandemic because of the timely actions of world health ministries in isolating the infected or it did not take hold because the initial pathology was just plain wrong. SARS was no doubt a nasty illness but it was never going be the killer of millions.
Now we have avian flu and the feared H5N1 strain. Last week medical researchers said that they had unscrambled the genetic code of the Spanish flu virus which, between 1918 and 1921, killed 21 million people, more than were slain in the murderous bloodbaths of World War I. Scientists and researchers discovered that the Spanish flu had an avian origin. The clear inference is that Asian bird flu could be similarly devastating. Yet since the H5N1 strain of the virus was identified last year, only 60 unfortunate people have died as the infection moved from birds and infected humans. China is reporting that it has developed an effective vaccine for the condition and the India pharmaceutical manufacturer, Cipla, says that it plans to produce a generic version of the anti-viral drug Tamiflu because Roche, the drug’s inventors, are unable to meet massive demand from governments anxious to stockpile emergency doses.
Politicians are, however, generally the worst judges of what is real about the threat of a pandemic. They will either be tempted to play down the danger — Turkey has announced with perplexing certainty that the outbreak among Turkish poultry no longer poses a danger of infection to human. Or they will protect themselves by ordering millions of doses of anti-virus serum despite the warnings from many medical professionals that the serum may well be useless against the final form of the virus.
The final — and arguably greatest danger — comes from a world public that is inherently distrustful of the promises, especially those made by elected politicians. If voters really do not trust their governments, then they will begin to believe the very worst that the scaremongers are saying. That could start a panic which would hamper, if not completely negate, the efforts of authorities to cope with the situation. The only sure defenses against such disastrous reaction are calm and a sense of proportion. Bird flu could indeed turn out to be very serious but panic for sure will only make the situation worse.
