The last thing the Middle East needs is another crisis. But all the signs of a new one, with Syria in the hot seat, are there. Fast on the heals of the UN report on the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, which implicated Damascus, a distinct momentum is building up which, unless handled carefully, is heading toward a bitter international political struggle in which Syria is bound to come off the worse. The ball is now firmly rolling along with the US-French-British draft resolution at the UN demanding that Damascus arrest Syrian officials suspected of involvement in Hariri’s assassination and that it must cooperate with UN investigators. The draft resolution is as aggressive as it can get at the moment; it threatens sanctions if Syria does not cooperate and it orders Syria to stop “meddling” in Lebanon.
Whether or not the draft gets voted through the UN Security Council in its present form is uncertain. Russia, a long-time ally of Damascus, has said that it will veto UN sanctions against it. But Russia’s promises in the past have not always turned out to be what they initially seem; as with most governments, other political considerations sometimes get in the way — in this case Moscow’s close relationship with Paris may well influence the Russians to change tack. They will not want to annoy the French, who are pushing the draft as firmly as the Americans and the British.
Many may decide that there is not enough evidence in the reports to indict Syria; others may feel there is a case to answer. It is an issue that divides the Arab world — although the fact that Washington is now pursing the matter with grim determination is likely to rouse sympathy for Syria. Indeed, many believe, and with justification, that in trying to put Syria in the dock Washington is motivated at least in part by a desire to punish it for allowing militants to cross the border into Iraq. On the other hand, that would hardly apply to the French.
Whatever happens to this particular draft, there is going to be no let-up in the Franco-American challenge to Damascus. The question then is whether this challenge can be managed and diffused or blows up into a full-scale crisis with violent consequences.
It is to avert the latter that Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak yesterday made his sudden, unscheduled visit to Damascus. He is being proactive, hoping to resolve the issue before it gets out of hand. It has to be hoped that he will be able to persuade Damascus that cooperation with the UN is the better course of action, even if it means swallowing national pride at being dictated to in such a humiliating fashion.
Simply denying the UN report and hoping that will go away is not going to solve anything. The report cannot be unmade. It is not going to be shelved in some dusty cupboard. Neither Washington nor Paris will allow that. Answers have to be given. Syria has to be seen to be cooperating. It is the only way to prevent the drama from escalating.
