Although UN peacekeepers along the Ethiopia’s disputed border with Eritrea are not saying so publicly, it is clear that Addis Ababa is now making the running in the rising tension which threatens to reopen the bitter two-year conflict beginning 1999. Any return to violence is absolutely the last thing the region needs, since it would threaten wider instability within the Horn of Africa, not least in still fragile Somalia.
The Ethiopians have just restricted land and air patrols by UN forces, meaning that more than half of the border with Eritrea is now unmonitored. This restriction comes on top of a move in October by Eritrea to limit UN border patrols at night. When the last war ended in 2000, both countries promised to abide by the findings of an independent commission that would define their border once and for all. In the event, when the commission decided the Ethiopian-occupied town of Badme came within Eritrea, the Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi refused to pull his troops back. Despite patient efforts by UN and other international diplomats, the situation is still unresolved and tension is rising.
Concern is the greater because the Ethiopian government has been struggling since June to cope with demonstrators who maintain that May’s elections were rigged. Zenawi’s EPRDF apparently won a much reduced majority, thanks to a big swing to opposition parties. Protests have turned into riots in which police have gunned down demonstrators and arrested at least two thousand, most of whom are still jailed without charge.
The fear is that the government will seek to quell the unrest and reunite public opinion by once again going to war with Eritrea. This would be an extremely dangerous ploy. It is not simply that renewed conflict will bring yet more destruction and bloodshed and is most unlikely to end with a clear victory. It is also important to realize that an expensive and disruptive war would jeopardize so much that Zenawi and his administration have already achieved economically. Whatever short-term fix it may to prove to be to his domestic political unrest, the Ethiopian premier can be sure that in the long term, his problems will worsen, not go away.
What is needed therefore is an immediate major dose of statesmanship and a lot of urgent and serious talking. The Ethiopian government should start negotiating with angry opposition politicians about the May result. An agreed political program and the award of government portfolios for some opposition leaders could defuse the tensions. Even more importantly, both Ethiopia and Eritrea must immediately restore full control of their disputed and de-militarized border to the United Nations. This will give each the comfort to pull back their own troops. Ethiopia should then appeal the border commission’s decision to the UN General Assembly or Security Council. If one of these bodies could produce a unanimous ruling, neither side could disputer it, because they would find themselves totally isolated internationally.
Ethiopia and Eritrea simply cannot afford to return to battle. They have far more important and peaceful agendas.
