Tuesday’s victory in the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections provide the Democratic Party with an exclamation mark to close a six-month stretch which has seen a dramatic reversal of the once listless party’s fortunes. Since the close of the Clinton administration, Democrats have been an underwhelming force in American politics, failing in almost every instance to block or seriously question Bush initiatives — including the crucial and controversial decision to invade and occupy Iraq. In the past five years, Democrats have made episodic political gains, but those were typically attributable to Republic blunders caused by the arrogance that inevitably infects any hegemonic power.
Once again, Republican missteps in the zero-sum game of American politics have allowed Democrats to rack up several tactical victories and make significant gains in the polls. Most recently, the indictment of key White House power broker “Scooter” Libby for his involvement in blowing the cover of CIA operative Valerie Plame in retaliation for a hostile opinion-editorial proved a boon for the party. But Democratic Senate Leader Harry Reid’s deft maneuvers of the past two weeks have been successful in their own right — proving his party with a rare victory of its own making.
Libby’s much anticipated indictment for perjury fell on a Friday, and resulted in an entire weekend news cycle being filled with bad press for the Bush administration, centering not only on the specifics of the case but the bigger and more potent question of the merits of Iraq. Knowing of the White House’s desire to deflect news away from Iraq — which has grown unpopular even among Republicans — Sen. Reid used a national television appearance to suggest the president could change media focus by withdrawing the embattled Supreme Court nomination of Harriet Miers. A day later, Bush did precisely that, taking Reid’s bait by nominating the less controversial Samuel Alito for the high court in place of Miers. Anticipating Bush’s move, Reid immediately responded by invoking an archaic, seldom used Senate rule that shut down the upper chamber of Congress. The move forced an impassioned debate over Iraq that resulted in an agreement to investigate the flawed intelligence data used by the Bush administration to justify the Iraqi invasion.
Reid’s procedural trickery also shifted media attention back to Iraq and away from Alito and the Supreme Court. Republicans were left with little but sour grapes, for even detractors had to admit the shrewd ploy worked — far better than even the most optimistic Democrats had hoped. Going into Tuesday’s off-year election for two state legislatures, governors, and a handful of mayors — which are always used as a political barometer — Republicans found themselves under fire for high energy prices, ethical scandals, and the abysmal handling of Hurricane Katrina. But no issue bogged the president and his party down more than Iraq, which has left 2,050 American soldiers dead and another 16,000 wounded. The Plame affair is damaging because it highlights both the vindictiveness of Bush operatives — led by Vice President Dick Cheney — and their eagerness to invade Iraq. To many Americans, it now appears they were so eager that they bent facts and used fraudulent intelligence data to back their claims, manipulating public opinion through deceit.
As hostile as the political landscape is today for George W. Bush, who has the lowest approval rating of any president at this point since Watergate-tainted Richard Nixon, there are still three years to go before the next presidential election. Three years is an eternity in American politics, more than enough time for a political revival. But a rebound cannot occur if the president acts out of desperation — as he did by campaigning in Virginia on the eve of the election, which made the race in part a referendum on his administration. Desperation will only further erode his shaky political standing.
In the Middle East, Bush has been presented an opportunity by events unfolding in Iran and Syria, where the respective leaderships have made all the wrong moves of late. Iranian President Mohamed Ahmadinejad, out of naivety or hubris developed by perceived American weakness, has in word and deed provoked the international community. Syria’s alleged involvement in the assassination of Rafik Hariri has further isolated Damascus, weakening a regime already believed to be unstable. Washington, like the Democrats, has benefited not by its own actions, but by the stumbles of its political foes. And like Reid in the Senate, the Bush administration may be able to keep momentum on its side by baiting Tehran and Damascus into making additional mistakes.
Even those who gloat about Bush’s current position and continue to question his gravitas should be careful not to underestimate his political acumen or believe the string of bad luck which has rained down will continue indefinitely. Nor should they forget that the lofty position of the United States in the world — on the economic, political, and military levels — makes it a major player in good times and bad. And Bush will continue to preside until January 2009.
— David Dumke is principal of the MidAmr Group. E-mail: [email protected]
