Apparent differences over his occupied territories policy have caused Ariel Sharon to break with the right-wing Likud party he founded. However, if this old political fox wins power again with his new National Responsibility party, will it really presage a return to the road map to peace or is he trying to conceal his hard-line Zionism in the guise of centrist politics?
The one thing certain about the political contest Sharon has provoked is that it is anything but the “snap” election referred to by unthinking commentators. It could be over three months before Israelis get to vote. Thereafter, based on past experience, whatever the outcome, it could be weeks longer before the political wheeling and dealing is over and a stable coalition government formed. Thus it could be April or May at the earliest before there is a new Israeli administration with whom the Palestinians can resume negotiations. By then George W. Bush’s Iraqi troubles will have become far worse and his administration weakened. With midterm elections looming in November, the White House may find itself diverted from taking the necessary strong lead to broker a just peace deal.
Sharon has talked about wanting to make constitutional changes that would bring greater stability to Israeli politics but such a proposal merits closer examination. The plain fact is that Israel has used, to extremely good effect, its political rows and the recurrent governmental paralysis that these induce. Regardless of government and regardless of political rhetoric, the same Zionist agenda of illegal settlements, military repression and consistent provocation of Palestinian anger has been pursued.
The fact that there could now be six months in which absolutely nothing can be decided is likely to add to the frustration in the occupied territories and undermine the position of Palestinian moderates. If, as seems depressingly likely, the radicals seek to fill the vacuum with yet more violence, giving the Israelis the excuse to launch further provocative “retaliatory” raids and assassinations, whatever government is finally formed in the late spring or early summer, may be able to protest to Washington that the peace process is even further from re-starting.
Even assuming that Israel’s 17th general election takes place in early February and Sharon wins and manages to form a coalition government in record time, it could all fall apart even faster. First of all, Sharon will be in his 79th year and prey to age and illness. Just as importantly, he could yet become a victim of the political corruption scandal over the funding of his 1999 leadership campaign. His son Omri has pleaded guilty but within his old Likud party, others may know where more skeletons are to be found in closets. In either eventuality, normal political business would once again be suspended and any thought of peace put on hold.
Zionism has perfected the art of political grandstanding to the gallery of world opinion and Ariel Sharon is one of its most competent practitioners. Wise observers never watch the hand that the conjuror looks at.
