One unexpected consequence of the ongoing conflict in Lebanon is a small, but noticeable drop in President Bush’s already lagging approval ratings.
This trend comes after a relatively positive month for Bush in which the president was able to boost his support level from the low 30s to 40 percent. While this level by no means conveys strength, the 40 percent mark is seen as the absolute minimum needed if Bush’s Republican Party has any chance of maintaining control of Congress in the November elections.
Ironically, according to polls conducted before Qana, Americans are far more sympathetic to the Israeli position than they are for Lebanon. Moreover, polls indicate most Americans agree with the path of avoidance taken by the Bush administration thus far. They simply do not want the United States to get involved in Lebanon. These poll numbers reflect the increasing unease traditionally isolationist-minded Americans have with foreign involvement, particularly at a time when American troops are bogged down in Iraq and still fighting in Afghanistan.
However, the polls specific to Lebanon belie the fact that the crisis has proven damaging to Bush on the domestic political scene. Lebanon abruptly halted momentum Bush generated after the killing of Abu Musab Zarqawi, and renewed doubts over Bush’s leadership abilities on the international stage, Iraq, gasoline prices, and the general direction of the country. Among these, no issue damages Bush more than Iraq. History will judge his tenure in the White House by the Iraqi conflict. Bush’s predicament bears comparison to that of fellow-Texan Lyndon Johnson who, despite the successes of his Great Society domestic program, is forever defined by Vietnam.
Bush himself does not need to worry about facing an angry electorate. Nor does he seem eager to withdraw US forces from Iraq; his statements indicate this sticky wicket will be left to his successor. Of course, inaction on Iraq poses considerable risks, which explains why the White House has consistently suggested that as bad as the situation appears, the Democrats have no alternative strategy except to, “cut and run.” Essentially portraying congressional Democrats as misguided idealists, if not cowards, the Republican majority recently passed a resolution expressing unambiguous support not only for the mission in Iraq, but the manner in which it has been conducted by the Bush administration.
Democrats reacted poorly to the trap set by Republicans. Many Democrats, after all, supported the initial invasion of Iraq. But by early 2006, as the situation deteriorated and the political winds shifted, a solid majority of the Democrats began advocating withdrawal. However, the party could not decide as to whether the withdrawal should be immediate, phased, or by agreement with the nascent Iraqi government. Bolstered by Zarqawi’s death and without a consensus among war critics — which the debate over the aforementioned resolution highlighted — Bush was able to modestly improve his job approval rating in June.
But then came Lebanon. While the narrative behind the conflict is largely misunderstood by the American public, what is apparent is that American regional policies have not stabilized the Middle East. Moreover, according to a CBS News/New York Times poll, 69 percent of Americans believe the situation in Iraq has made it more difficult for the United States to carry out diplomacy in the region — a point made painfully clear when Secretary of State Rice’s shuttle diplomacy ended abruptly with the Qana bombing. Bush’s leadership, long considered a point of strength among Americans, is now being seriously questioned.
In Iraq, there is a perpetual cycle of one step forward, two back. Yes, the Iraqis have participated in elections, agreed upon a constitution, and elected a Parliament. However, the US still is sustaining multiple casualties each day.
More ominously, as UN statistics recently revealed, on average more than 100 Iraqi have been killed each day over the past two months. The US Department of Defense has meanwhile announced troop levels in Iraq would be increased, hardly a sign of improvement.
While Americans are rapidly growing accustomed to paying higher gas prices at the pump, the rate of increase in the past two years is alarming. Per gallon prices now stand at $3, an increase of more than 70 cents from a year ago and nearly double the price in early 2004. Increased fuel costs are impacting all sectors of the economy — including heating, cooling, shipping, and manufacturing.
Added to these areas of concern are ongoing political scandals and heated debates over stem cell research and immigration — all of which, to varying degrees, are damaging to the president and his party. Collectively, this has led many Americans — 65 percent according to recent polls — to conclude the country is on the wrong track. This bodes extremely ill for the Republicans, who control both the executive and legislative branches. Republicans have, with great success, repeatedly shifted attention to the Democrats’ lack of leadership and initiative. But this strategy seems to have run its course. With or without an agenda, Democrats are well positioned to capture the House of Representatives for the first time since 1994.
— David Dumke is principal of the Washington-based MidAmr Group. E-mail: [email protected].
