There was a wave of what was almost disbelief when the firing stopped in Lebanon at eight o’clock yesterday morning. Seldom has there been a cease-fire which seems so fragile. The reason is that because of Washington’s efforts, Resolution 1701 gives Israel virtual carte blanche to resume its aggression on “defensive” grounds. The world sees that Israel has not attained the goals it set for itself and announced publicly. Thus, many Lebanese understandably see this as a victory for Hezbollah. In that case, there will surely be humiliated Israeli commanders, itching for a chance to resume the destruction.
With the failure of the Lebanese government, including its Hezbollah ministers, to reach agreement Sunday night on the deployment of the Lebanese Army in the south of the country, the Israeli government may already believe it has a strong case for restarting the conflict. Much depends on the speed with which a likely French-led UN force can deploy; yesterday, however, a French general warned there was much to be done before deployment. In the meantime, only the existing UNIFIL troops will monitor the cease-fire and perhaps identify those who break it.
If Israel has indeed suffered a severe setback in southern Lebanon, it will be in part, as some Israeli commentators have pointed out angrily, because its intelligence on the ground proved to be woefully inadequate. This is not the problem in Gaza where the Palestinian population of 1.4 million has been bottled up and spied upon by the Israeli military for nearly two months. The fear now is that if the Lebanese cease-fire holds, the Israelis will turn their attention to the Palestinians. Unlike Lebanon which has an elected government whose existence is recognized by the international community, the Palestinians used their democratic rights and chose Hamas — which Washington insists is a terrorist organization. President Bush’s utter failure to realize that involving militants in the political process provides a clear way to an end to militancy and to the establishment of negotiation and diplomacy is as dangerous as it is foolishly absurd.
If Washington now countenances a renewed campaign of Israeli violence against Hamas and the Palestinians, it will not only be a crime but it could also undermine the Lebanese cease-fire and wreck any chance that Resolution 1701, inadequate as it already is for Lebanese interests, has of providing a basis for peace.
Defiance and guerrilla tactics are the only army that the Palestinians can field against an overwhelmingly more powerful occupying power. The Israelis know this very well since it was their own Irgun secret guerrilla army and its bloody militant offshoot, the Stern Gang, which propelled Israel into existence. Hezbollah and Hamas have learned the lessons of Irgun.
As long as Washington refuses to accept the reality of Hezbollah and Hamas, as long as it will not deal with them, it sabotages any hope of peace, radicalizes more Palestinians and Lebanese and undermines the very moderate opinion upon which a lasting settlement could eventually be based.
