Whatever one thinks about Hezbollah, and, personally, I am not in favor of its aim to turn Lebanon — which is 40 percent Christian — into an Islamic state, there can be no doubt that the weeks of grim and bloody conflict have been successful for it.
It will not wish to acknowledge that a considerable part of that success is due to the incompetence of Israeli politicians and defense chiefs, who still seem not to comprehend what Hezbollah is all about, and how best to defend themselves against the serious challenge it presents. They created totally unrealistic expectations: They overrelied on the use of air power — as the Americans have also regularly done in recent years — and they chopped and changed their military plans. There is an old military saying “order, counterorder, disorder” which they have either forgotten or ignored. The Israeli public was united in favor of resolute and effective action against Hezbollah’s skilled fighters and feels badly let down.
As we still do not know what Hassan Nasrallah’s expectations were in the way of retaliation from the Israelis, when he launched his patrol into Israel to seize the two Israeli soldiers, there must be some doubts over Hezbollah’s aims when the fighting started. But by the start of the cease-fire — and after Israel had been given time by the Americans — and shamefully the British in their wake — to take decisive action against Hezbollah, it was clear that Nasrallah’s men had resisted Israel’s powerful defense forces for weeks longer than all the Arab armies put together in 1967. There is today a new military equation in the Middle East; Hezbollah has changed the nature of the conflict in the Arab/Israel dispute by firing some 4,000 rockets into northern Israel and as far down as Haifa. This is by no means the new Middle East that Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, had spoken of many weeks ago.
The impact of these rocket attacks on public opinion in Israel was very considerable, although amazingly few people were killed by them. Hundreds of thousands of people moved out of the way or lived in shelters, and commercial and industrial life, let alone the important summer tourist trade, were hit hard. One wonders what Israel’s Patriot anti-missile batteries did for a living?
Israeli politicians brag about the new, absurd and extremely expensive Wall that cuts further into Palestinian land. In the age of Hezbollah’s Katyusha and Zelzal-2 rockets has it become the Maginot Line of this century? If I were an Israeli citizen I would be demanding a better, up to date defense policy from the politicians.
Israel went out of its way to try to kill Nasrallah using the latest surveillance equipment and military technology. It failed, and was made to look foolish in this regard. After a month-long fight he stands all the taller. He joins the likes of Osama bin Laden and Mulla Omar, the Taleban leader, who also have escaped death by bomb and bullet.
Hezbollah must have expected to experience considerable damage in any extensive combat with Israel, which claims it killed a number of its commanders and several hundreds of its fighters. We do know many new recruits were knocking at its door, and were told to wait while the intense conflict lasted. We can presume many volunteers are now being trained.
Israel talked of sweeping its tanks to the strategically important Litani River, but when the fighting stopped battles had still been raging only a few miles into Lebanon. Hezbollah’s anti-tank defenses in the rocky hills and gullies proved to be formidable.
Many commentators were amazed that Hezbollah managed to carry on its rocket attacks to the end. It is a safe bet it has many thousands of rockets still concealed under buildings and in enlarged caves. Resupply will be hazardous, but it is unlikely to be impossible. I would not be surprised if Hezbollah reequips with some larger range missiles that can reach Tel Aviv, and be fired from north of the Litani Rriver.
It is impossible to forecast what will happen to Hezbollah in the next few weeks and months for there are far too many unknown factors. Negotiations within the Security Council of the United Nations have taken minimum account of the views of Iran and Syria. The cease-fire seems only tentative, and I doubt if the beefed-up peacekeeping force will be all in place within several months. The logistical problems of deploying it into southern Lebanon, with all its unexploded bombs and mines, and destroyed roads and bridges, are formidable.
Hezbollah has announced it has, at present, no intention of disarming — particularly while a single Israeli solider is illegally in Lebanon.
The Middle East has seldom looked so unpredictable, so uncertain or so dangerous.
