It is now widely accepted, particularly so in Israel, that Hezbollah emerged in better shape than the Israeli Defense Forces from the sharp conflict of 34 days that took place in, and at the expense of, Lebanon. Where does Hezbollah go from here?
Before considering some of the wider aspects of its position, let us look at the immediate practical tasks it faces. It needs to replenish its arms and ammunition, having made it clear it has no intention of disarming while a single Zionist soldier remains in Lebanon. I am not convinced it will disarm completely when that last soldier does cross back into Israel.
It needs to recruit those required to replace the many Hezbollah fighters killed and injured in the conflict, train them and then deploy them. Many hundreds of volunteers were kept waiting until the cease-fire started. In a military sense it will need to regroup and decide swiftly on its likely future tasks. This will be difficult for the Hezbollah in view of the many political and diplomatic uncertainties. It is going to try to obtain an exchange of prisoners that in numerical terms will be much to its advantage.
Hezbollah is demonstrating a willingness to lead the rebuilding of Lebanon, and has promised large sums of money — from Iran? It is giving out over $10,000 per person, in fresh notes, to those whose homes were destroyed by Israeli bombing, and has offered support to the widows and orphans of the conflict. Of course, it should be the government of Lebanon, under Prime Minister Fouad Siniona, which leads the war relief effort, but that government seems in trouble with internal differences and it has been slow off the mark.
Resupply is going to be difficult and take time for the Hezbollah. Kofi Annan, the UN secretary-general, must have been aware prior to his visit to Israel, that it would be impossible to persuade Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to lift Israel’s air-and-sea blockade of Lebanon until the beefed-up peacekeeping force was in place, and that will be months away. I am suspicious that the target figure of 15,000 will be unobtainable.
We can presume that Hezbollah even now is trying to smuggle in new larger range missiles that can be fired from north of the Litani River and reach Tel Aviv. The UN should, in principle, patrol the over 200-mile long border between Syria and Lebanon that passes through rugged terrain. It would be a monumental task and require far more troops and helicopters than the UN is ever going to have at its disposal. The might of the British Army found it impossible to prevent arms reaching Northern Ireland from the Republic of Ireland during the campaign against the IRA. Syria has reacted strongly against any suggestion that this border should be monitored.
The Security Council Resolution 1701 of Aug. 11 states Hezbollah must disarm. In theory no state can host for long another army on its territory, for that could lead to a state within a state. France is not the only country contributing troops to the UN force to insist that its troops should not be ordered to disarm Hezbollah. The UN is not going to attempt to disarm Hezbollah for the obvious reason it would be impossible. Tiny though Hezbollah is, it has become one of the most effective fighting forces in the Arab world. It has picked on a better idea than suicide bombers — suicide fighters. Its fighters are expert, dedicated and resourceful. It is a safe bet that one distant day it will be disarmed through the political process in Lebanon — it is at heart a Lebanese resistance movement — and not by force of arms. For the moment it is opposing many decisions of the Lebanese Cabinet, a Cabinet that, inevitably in the circumstances, Hezbollah regards as too pro-Western in its values and interests.
If there were those in Arab governments who expected, possibly even privately hoped, that Israel would teach Hezbollah a lesson, they were seriously mistaken. Hezbollah rides the crest of a wave and gives encouragement to other radical Islamic groups. So long as Hassan Nasrallah survives assassination attempts by Israel, which will continue and with the support of the Americans, Hezbollah has one of the few really charismatic and talented leaders in the region. It would be a great mistake to underestimate his political and military skills.
Nasrallah sees his successful organization as part of a “rejectionist front” which includes Iran, Syria and Hamas. He does not wish Israel to survive any more than does President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran. For the moment the tide of affairs is behind the rejectionists, but for the Palestinians they really offer only generations of despair and degradation, bitterness and bloodshed.
