Whoever murdered Pierre Gemayel wants Lebanon to descend once again into civil war. For this reason alone, all Lebanese must restrain their fear and anger. The country still bears the scars of fifteen years of internecine savagery stoked by outside interference. However great the passions aroused by this wicked crime, a return to civil conflict will cast the country back into the abyss. Every Lebanese will lose.
The belief that the Syrians are responsible for the assassination of Gemayel has been almost a reflex response. It stems from the strong evidence that there was some, possibly renegade, Syrian involvement in the 2005 murder of former Premier Rafik Hariri who was a bitter opponent of the Syrian presence in his country. If this is true, the deed backfired because the subsequent howl of popular fury and international outrage forced Syria to end its 29-year occupation of Lebanon.
What needs to be considered is the timing of this political murder. Syria is re-emerging from years of isolation as a key regional player. With diplomatic relations restored after 24 years, Syria this week promised to help the Iraqi government stem the tide of terrorist men and materiel across their common border. Additionally Damascus has already made it clear that it wants to see Washington oblige its Israeli allies in order to resume real talks and reach an early agreement on the creation of a Palestinian state. It also wants the Golan Heights back.
The Bush White House is not enjoying the likelihood that it will have to eat crow and start working with Syria and Iran, which it once demonized as the Axis of Evil. Israel, still floundering from its defeat by Hezbollah, does not want its weakness exploited to force it to yield to either Palestinian or Syrian demands. It thus very much suits both the Americans and Israelis to have the finger of blame for Gemayel’s slaying pointing at Syria.
Who benefits most from this latest political assassination in Lebanon? Is it not likely that it was their fingers on the triggers that sprayed Gemayel’s car with bullets on Tuesday? For Damascus, the accusations could not have come at a more frustrating time. Syria initially mishandled its response to the UN tribunal investigating the Hariri assassination, since expanded to include 22 other Lebanese political murders. The UN chief investigator, Belgian Serge Brammertz, complained of a lack of Syrian cooperation but last April was invited to interview President Basher Assad and other leading Syrians as part of his inquiry. His UN team may not produce its findings until next June. Meanwhile, those in whose interest it is have put the worst possible spin on Syria’s early response to the investigation.
What is often forgotten is that Syria has every reason to be suspicious because of the way it has been falsely cast as the whipping boy in the past. An “exhaustive” British police investigation concluded that Syria was behind the 1988 Lockerbie PanAm bombing in which 259 people died. Yet in 1990 when Damascus backed Saddam’s expulsion from Kuwait, the British police thought again and blamed Libya instead.
