Following on King Gyanendra’s restoration of Parliament in Nepal and the end of mass street protests there, the announcement of a three-month cease-fire by Maoist guerrillas is a further welcome development for the Himalayan kingdom. There is now a real chance of Nepal finding its way back to stability and sanity — but only if the Maoist campaign can be ended. That campaign — against whichever government has been in power over the past ten years — has been far more deadly and destabilizing than the constitutional crisis and the strikes of the past few weeks. Over 13,000 people have been killed since the Maoists opted for a violent revolution. Indeed, the insurgency has been the cause of the constitutional crisis; the failure of politicians to end the insurgency was the reason King Gyanendra gave last year for taking direct power. A new constitution, which Nepal will now certainly have, will go some way to ensure future stability; but without a permanent end to the Maoist rebellion, it would be simply tinkering with the country’s problems. The rebels control large swathes of the countryside although they maintain that control through force and terror. They were even able to blockade the capital Katmandu. They have to be brought into the political framework.
It would be encouraging to think that the Maoists have had a sudden and fundamental change of heart having seen that people power works and that change can be achieved without violence. That, though, would be a delusion; there is no reason to believe that they have lost their faith in violence. This is not the first truce they have announced. They are not exactly to be trusted. Certainly reports that they want to give a chance to the new government, due to be formalized today when Parliament reconvenes, stretches credulity. In the past they have regarded Girija Prasad Koirala, the man whom the constitutional opposition has nominated as prime minister, as an archenemy.
Their change of tactics is more about political pragmatism. This is a time of decision and change for Nepal. The new government and Parliament are going to be involved in working out a new constitution for the country and the Maoists want to be in on that debate. They cannot if they are on the outside, still fighting.
The challenge to the government then is to tie the Maoists into the political debate so that they cannot suddenly resume their insurrection. That will not be easy. The Maoists are going to make demands that many in the seven-party constitutional opposition to King Gyanendra and even more so in the armed forces may find too extreme. The continuation of the monarchy is undoubtedly going to be a key issue. Recently the Maoist leader, Prachanda, said that King Gyanendra should be executed — although it could be asked why the same fate should not await him. He has after all, been responsible for more Nepalese deaths than anyone else, by a massive margin. But he, of course would not see it that way.
The monarchy will not be the only dispute. There will be arguments about a centralized economy, the role of the armed forces, amnesties and land nationalization. Even so, even despite the Maoists’ dreams of total power, there is a real chance of permanent peace now that they have opted to come in from the cold. Almost everyone in Nepal wants to draw a line under the past. The head of the Nepalese military, no less, has said there could be a role for the Maoists in the army. Reconciliation is in the air. It is extremely encouraging.
