VIENNA, Austria, 7 May 2006 — As the UN Security Council meets this week to discuss how to stop Iran’s march toward nuclear weapons capability, Russia has the potential to serve as a bridge between the West and the Islamic republic. But Moscow’s complex motives may make it a difficult partner.
Russia, a permanent member of the council that had close ties to Middle Eastern countries since the Soviet era, now views the volatile, oil-rich region as the key to regaining its position as a world leader, diplomats and analysts say.
Moscow also has strong economic ties to Tehran: Two-way trade topped $2 billion in 2004, and Iranian officials predicted recently that it would double in the coming years.
This is “a moment of truth for Russia,’’ when the nation will choose whether to throw its lot with the West or keep the US and its allies at arm’s length, said Radzhab Safarov, director of the Iranian Studies Center in Moscow.
The two Western European permanent members of the council, Britain and France, share the United States’ goal of persuading Iran to halt uranium enrichment, and they are willing to back sanctions, and perhaps military action, to obtain that goal. On Wednesday, the United States, Britain and France introduced a draft Security Council resolution ordering Iran to halt its nuclear enrichment activities.
Although Moscow shares the West’s desire to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear state, it has other interests as well, chief among them enhancing its status as an alternative power to the United States, said diplomats and experts.
Russia is particularly concerned that the US experience in Iraq will be repeated in Iran — a fear shared by much of the world.
Sanctions could limit Russian exports to Iran and war would almost certainly destabilize the region, disrupting not only Russian business with Iran but throughout the Middle East.
Safarov said that beyond economic concerns, regaining ascendancy on the world stage is paramount for Russia. If Moscow can define itself as the world’s broker on Iran, he said, it will be the “go-to” country for the West in dealing with the Islamic republic.
On Wednesday, the Security Council began to discuss a legally binding resolution to require Iran to stop its enrichment activities. But the resolution will avoid any mention of sanctions, which Russia and another permanent member, China, oppose. US and European officials expect Russia to sign after some bluster — or at least abstain and allow it to pass because it merely formalizes a previous council statement, backed by Russia, which demanded that Iran suspend its uranium enrichment activities. All five permanent members have veto power.
“I’m sure we can find the right language that will assure everyone that this resolution is not about sanctions,’’ US Ambassador John Bolton said.
Russian officials repeat Iran’s mantra that it has a right to peaceful nuclear power, but Moscow is adamant that Iran should not produce a bomb or, as Russian diplomats frequently put it, “violate the nonproliferation regime.’’
“Our position is always (the same), and it’s conditioned by two basic principles, which are the integrity and inviolability of the nonproliferation regime — this is absolutely fundamental, absolutely essential. On the other hand, we’ve got to recognize and to acknowledge the undeniable right of Iran, like of any other country in the world, to peacefully pursue its peaceful nuclear program, peaceful nuclear energy,’’ said Nikolai Spassky, deputy secretary of the Russian Security Council, speaking to reporters recently in Moscow.
Russia has laid the groundwork for its ascendancy with ever-increasing economic ties. Besides the oil products that it has to import, Iran also buys conventional arms and missile defense systems from Russia.
Russia sold Iran at least $4 billion in goods in the 1990s, and just this year concluded a nearly $1-billion deal to buy 30 missile-defense systems, intelligence sources say. Those systems could make it harder for the United States and its allies to bomb Iran’s nuclear installations.
Russia has expressed interest in expanding its involvement in helping Iran to build up its civilian nuclear power industry. It helped Iran build its sole nuclear power plant at Bushehr, a $1-billion project that is almost complete and it is well-positioned to assist Iran if it goes ahead with its stated goal of building more nuclear plants. Russia is one of just a handful of countries that has the technological know-how to build such facilities and the one with the best relations with the country.
US officials have pressed Russia to halt its assistance with the Bushehr plant and hold back on sending the Iranians the nuclear fuel rods it has agreed to provide to operate the reactor. Russia has not formally responded, but has yet to send the fuel rods necessary to run the plant.
Russia also has a political interest in Iran, which has helpfully remained silent in the face of Moscow’s efforts to suppress Muslim separatists in Chechnya. Iran has also refrained from encouraging fundamentalists to stir up Russia’s Muslims, who make up about 16 percent of its population.
Russia’s focus on the Middle East as a way to regain its global stature began not long after the former Soviet Union broke up.
First, Russia joined the Organizaton of the Islamic Conference as an observer, reaching out to the Islamic world. Then, in 1992, Russia and Iran set up a Joint Economic Committee to encourage business ventures between the two countries. Today, Russia is far closer to Iran than any Western country.
The cozy relationship between the two states means that there is likely regular consultation between Moscow and Tehran, and Russia’s decisions are carefully calibrated to avoid alienating either the Iranians or the West.
