MEETINGS of the Quartet normally do not make big headlines. However, tomorrow’s gathering in New York is viewed as exceptional. In addition to the Quartet — the US, EU, Russia and the UN — also attending will be Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, UN chief Kofi Annan, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Austrian Foreign Minister Ursula Plassnik, whose country currently holds the rotating presidency of the European Union, and the foreign ministers of both Egypt and Jordan. What has brought such an impressive list together at a meeting of a group not known for its influence or decision-breaking policies is the present, dangerous stalemate between Palestine and Israel and the serious concern that the current freeze is not sustainable.
Uppermost on the agenda will be the funds that have dried up in the wake of the United States and the European Union, the two biggest donors to the Palestinian Authority, cutting off hundreds of millions of dollars in aid. Hamas has been told that the money supply won’t be turned on again until it recognizes Israel. It has rejected the calls, despite a financial crunch that has left the treasury unable to pay the salaries of 165,000 government workers for the past two months. The financial outlook is frightening. The World Bank estimates that the Palestinian economy will shrink in 2006 by 27 percent. By 2008, it projects that 74 percent of Palestinians will be below the poverty line and 47 percent will be without a job. That is only two years from now; starting from today the situation is dire, attested by the hundreds of Palestinians who staged strikes and demonstrations over the weekend in the West Bank and Gaza Strip to demand payment of overdue salaries.
The Quartet is duty-bound to help resolve the impasse. The problem is that even within the Quartet there are differences. Unlike the United States, the Russians have met with and recognize Hamas and last week delivered $10 million in emergency aid to the Palestinians. Some European countries are prepared to be more flexible than the US but for now, they are following Washington’s hard-line approach. The Americans’ close relationship with Israel, and the importance of the “war on terror” on its list of priorities, means that Washington is unlikely to suddenly change its views on Hamas.
So, too, the policies of new Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert are apparently here to stay, including his notorious “convergence” plan which involves Israel ceding some ground but consolidating its hold on occupied East Jerusalem and the land behind the wall that is being built in the West Bank. The great majority of settlers will remain on occupied territory.
Palestinians will find themselves stripped of some of their best land and water resources. They will be confined to central areas of the West Bank between Israeli-controlled zones. What then takes the place of a life with no land, hope or money is reciprocal anger, disillusionment and retaliation. The Quartet is dealing with a ticking triple threat it must try mightily to defuse.
