LONDON, 12 May 2006 — British Prime Minister Tony Blair’s promise to quit well before the next election has bought him time in a battle with Labour Party critics — but the pressure is certain to mount on him to follow through. Some Labour lawmakers, unhappy with the pressure the government is now under, want Blair to prove that he has a private pact on a handover with his presumed heir and age-old rival, finance minister Gordon Brown. “If he can do that at some point over the next couple of weeks, then I think all this will go away. If he can’t, then it’s just going to get worse,” said Philip Cowley, political analyst at Nottingham University.
Blair — who has said he will not seek a fourth term — was forced to commit himself to a timely transition after dire local election results and headlines of government incompetence and sleaze prompted many in Labour to urge him to set the ball rolling on the handover. On Monday he guaranteed his successor ample time to settle in before an election expected in 2009, but still refused to give a timetable, saying it would paralyze government. Blair won an unprecedented third successive term for Labour in 2005, but his parliamentary majority was slashed, partly due to anger over the Iraq war. The loss of more than 300 local council seats last week out of almost 1,800 that Labour was defending exacerbated fears in the party that he has become an electoral liability. An opinion poll this week had Labour’s support slumping to a 14-year low.
Meanwhile a resurgent Conservative Party made big gains in last week’s elections under new leader David Cameron, who is sure to take Blair’s announcement on the handover as fresh ammunition to say the premier is not fit to govern. Blair has already tried to assert his authority with a sweeping Cabinet reshuffle after the local election losses, but looks likely to face more dissent in Parliament over his flagship public service reforms.
Labour parliamentarian Louise Ellman said Blair had said enough to satisfy her doubts over the future handover. But Labour lawmakers and analysts agree that the one thing he cannot afford is to let the soap opera of his power struggle with Brown and the latter’s succession rumble on.
While the prime minister is keen to stress he has a busy agenda, with announcements on pensions reform and nuclear energy policy set for the coming months, parliamentarians and analysts are frantically guessing what his exit date will be. Mid-2007 is a possible departure date that would allow Blair to complete 10 years in office and make way for Labour’s annual conference in September to crown his successor. Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott — who has been partly blamed for Labour’s local election defeat after confessing to an affair with his secretary — said this week that “conference” would have its role to play in the switch.
Blair may want to stay longer, to pass former Conservative leader Margaret Thatcher’s 11-year record in office. That would mean staying until the end of November 2008. But that might be too much for Brown’s camp to accept. Labour and the Conservatives have paid the price for infighting and division at the ballot box in the past, and Blair insists he wants his legacy to be a fourth term for Labour. “The odds are shortening on him going sooner rather than later,” said Andrew Russell, senior politics lecturer at Manchester University. “This story has developed its own momentum now.”
