The world will shortly have a new national capital. Podgorica is no Paris nor Istanbul nor Cairo but, as a result of Sunday’s referendum, the people of Montenegro are on the road to independence and it will be their seat of government. The breakup of Serbia-Montenegro, the last but one remaining part of the old Yugoslavia, is a further testament to the purblind leadership of the late dictator Slobodan Milosevic. His brutal nationalist policies led Serbia into disaster and Bosnia Herzegovina and Croatia into a bloodbath.
The Montenegrins were at best lukewarm supporters of these disastrous policies. At the height of the conflict, there was a movement among Montenegrins to break away from Belgrade. The international community was excited by this development but the Serbs moved quickly and quietly to dissuade the already autonomous Montenegrins from taking the final step toward independence. Further, Serb troops were sent into barracks around Podgorica and secret police officers took over key stations within the province. In the event, the Montenegrins decided that discretion was the better part of valor. Despite behind-the-scenes urging from Washington and other NATO powers, the Montenegrins probably chose, probably wisely, to stick to the union with Serbia. No one will ever know now, but the chances are that an attempted breakaway would have initiated a further bout of bloodletting and destruction by Milosevic and his bigoted supporters. On top of this, there was a significant minority of Montenegrins who saw greater advantage in sticking with Belgrade and doubted the viability of an independent Montenegrin state. The wisdom of this approach is apparent from the fact that most Serbs now have shrugged their shoulders at the result of Sunday’s referendum.
Nevertheless it must be hoped that Montenegrins have not underestimated the challenges ahead. Their country will continue to be reliant on good relations with the Serbs as well as with the Bosnians. The greatest significance of Montenegro’s move, however, is on the future of Kosovo. The last remaining piece of the brutal Milosevic legacy is still in political limbo. Dogged by an extraordinary dedication to the distant facts of history — Kosovo was both the site of an initial Serb victory and then an utter defeat by the Ottoman Turks — the future of the quasi-independent province remains a matter of considerable importance to many Serbs. Nationalist politicians still beat the chauvinistic drum over Kosovo but there is a wider recognition in Serbia that there is no further point in trying to push water uphill.
Serbia needs to attend to its own economic and political problems. It is stalled on the threshold of EU membership, its economy is a shambles and sinister mafia elements are playing an ever greater behind the scenes role. Even if it wanted to, Serbia could not resist Montenegrin independence any more than it could mount a cogent challenge to a free Kosovo. It finally seems to recognize that the future for all the Balkans, is cooperation based on mutual respect.
