MOGADISHU, 10 June 2006 — Islamist leaders in control of the city reportedly agreed to talks with the country’s transitional government Wednesday, a move some analysts said could provide the first hope of stability after 15 years of anarchy.
But the streets of the capital bristled with tense, heavily armed militias on edge over any attempt at a counteroffensive by an alliance of rival warlords reportedly backed by the United States.
The Bush administration has not admitted backing the alliance of warlords against the Islamists, though an analyst with the International Crisis Group, John Prendergast, said CIA backing for the warlords to the extent of $100,000 to $150,000 a month was “crystal clear.”
The Islamic Court Union (ICU) claimed control of Mogadishu Monday, driving the Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counterterrorism from the capital after months of fighting that killed hundreds of civilians.
Although some people trickled back into the city Wednesday, many others were leaving, fearing a counterattack. Some people tried to trade milk and fruit, while others moved cautiously in cars or pushed wheelbarrows.
US State Department spokesman Sean McCormack Wednesday said the Bush administration would “reserve judgment” on the new regime, but reiterated US concerns about foreign fighters in Somalia.
“We do have very real concerns about the presence of foreign terrorists on Somali soil,” he said. “I think that that is also a concern for many Somalis as well.”
Famine and clan fighting prompted US intervention in Somalia in December 1992 — a mission marred by a botched raid against a top warlord that killed 18 US Army rangers, made famous by the book and movie, “Blackhawk Down.” US troops left in March 1994, and the country descended into chaos.
The ICU has made clear its aim to establish Islamic law in Mogadishu, leading to fears of a Taleban-style regime, but the ICU chairman, Sheikh Sherif, also has promised cooperation with the international community and strongly denies any support for terrorists.
The weak transitional government, backed by the international community, is trying to establish itself in Somalia, but is divided and lacks power. Too weak to control Mogadishu it is based in Baidoa, 155 miles northwest west of Mogadishu.
Somalia’s future depends largely on whether the ICU and the transitional government can forge an agreement, and whether ICU can extend its grip without alienating rival clans and warlords, who may still count on foreign backing by Ethiopia or the United States.
The years of violence, extortion and roadblocks under warlords, however, helped the ICU become popular because of its efforts to create order.
Analysts see US efforts to prevent the Islamic takeover of Mogadishu as an embarrassing failure but warn further intervention could lead to unpredictable or catastrophic results.
“I don’t think in this world any more it’s possible to have your way any more just because you pay some people off and give them arms,” said Dr. Michael Weinstein, political scientist of the Power and Interest News Report think tank, based in Chicago.
“I believe it’s imprudent for the United States to take sides in the Horn of Africa generally,” Weinstein said. “I don’t see complexity like this anywhere in the world. That makes it unpredictable if you intervene.”
Most warlords have fled toward the city of Jowhar, 60 miles northwest of Mogadishu, while others have defected to the Islamist side. But two potentially powerful figures remain in the city: Muse Sudi Yalahow, a former minister of the transitional government , and Bashir Rage.
“It is not clear to me why I am fighting now because the Islamists took control of the town and defeated some strong warlords,” said Jinow Hassan, 28, one of Rage’s fighters, promising to fight as a guerrilla against the ICU.
In the streets some ordinary Somalians saw the Islamic courts as the country’s only hope, while others feared a strict Islamic regime. Some were afraid there would be more fighting in future.
“The warlords were always extorting money,” said Muse Osman, 32, a driver who sees the Islamic courts as the path to stability. “The courts are suitable to lead the country. They are not terrorists. They are standing for the restoration of law and order in the country.”
Anad Osoble, 22, said the Islamic courts were preferable to warlords “but their militancy will lead them to impose sanctions on the people like the Taleban did in Afghanistan.”
