The long-running saga about Iran’s apparent determination to acquire nuclear weapons has turned over into the next chapter. Many countries see it as the top item on the global agenda. I believe the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council are currently handling it well.
In the back of my mind is the unwelcome and unpopular thought that if a country is determined to acquire nuclear weapons, it is possible that the international community cannot stop them. Pakistan is the obvious example. Nuclear knowledge is now obtainable by top scientists. There are all too many nuclear warheads in unsafe hands and in unsafe places.
The military option is highly unsatisfactory. John Bolton, the most undiplomatic American senior diplomat at the United Nations, likes to boast you have only to destroy one link in the chain to prevent the manufacture of such horrific munitions. But for how long? Is the operation to be repeated? What retaliation might be expected from the attacked country — perhaps in the form of well-equipped terrorists going for civilian targets? Countries determined to acquire nuclear weapons have their reasons for wanting to do so, and will take obvious precautions such as having crucial sites concealed in the sides of mountains and duplicated.
As a former soldier I do not deny that military force can have a role to play, but world statesmen should understand at the start of this new century that it regularly creates more problems than it solves. Iraq comes quickly to mind.
Javier Solana, the European Union high representative for common foreign and security policy, who has been described by Lord (Chris) Patten, the former European Commissioner, as “ubiquitous and charming, an intelligent and well-read networker of prodigious energy” visited Tehran on June 6. He presented to the Iranians a package of measures — sweetmeats to tempt them back into the land of diplomacy. These measures had been worked out in Vienna on June 2, by the five permanent members of the Security Council plus Germany (one of the three European Union countries which has been negotiating with Iran).
We can all be encouraged that both Russia and China are backing this important international initiative. If one, let alone both, of these two major players is not in agreement, the Iranians have a good laugh amongst themselves and sail on into the sunset.
Iran has mishandled its dealings with Russia. It was the Russians who built Iran’s first nuclear reactor at Bushehr. Russia unexpectedly invited Iranian scientists to work in Russia on the peaceful development of nuclear energy. Iran unwisely declined. Russia now says Iran’s behavior is “feeding suspicions”. The Russians will be anxious that the Iranians do not support the Chechen religious extremists with nuclear devices in the years ahead.
The problem for China is that Iran is the world’s fourth biggest oil exporter, after Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United States, and China’s fast growing economy is looking to Iran to meet its future oil requirements. China has signed contracts recently for huge quantities of that oil. China is today operating a more enlightened foreign policy than it did only a few years ago, and will not want to be the only permanent member of the Security Council in opposition to the others.
Condoleezza Rice, the American secretary of state, should be congratulated on being able to make important changes to America’s approach. The Americans are now offering to participate in talks with Iran — the first time for decades. They are also offering to supply Tehran with some nuclear technology if it agrees to stop enriching uranium. They have also asked to be invited to repair Iran’s ageing civilian fleet of aircraft. That fleet has a very poor safety record.
The European Union could assist with building light water reactors and sell Airbus aircraft. They could guarantee a supply of nuclear fuel. It is easy to regard Iran’s foreign and defense policy as being carved in granite. But this is far from the case. The spiritual leader of the Islamic republic, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, who was appointed in 1989, is also the commander-in-chief of the armed forces. It is well known in Tehran he has major disagreements with President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, who was only elected last June.
Nobody knows how Tehran will respond to this international initiative put to it by Javier Solana. The immediate reaction was polite and encouraging, but talks may well go on for years. Iran has great strategic importance and power, but it also has many internal problems — most of them of its own making.
The proposals offered to Iran have been carefully put together and should certainly be attractive to many in Tehran. The Iranians also know that there is a stick as well as carrots in the form of possible targeted sanctions.
