There is no doubt that the 6-member Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is emerging as a major factor in global politics with decisive influence on the balance of power in Asia.
Established in June 2001,the regional organization comprises China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Its member states take up 60 percent of Eurasia and a quarter of the world’s population. It is the successor to the “Shanghai Five” — China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Set up in 1996 as the Shanghai Five, its objective was to resolve border disputes and terrorism that emerged in the wake of the war against the Soviets in Afghanistan.
Now five years after it was established, the SCO is clearly graduating beyond its original mandate of dealing with security threats.
There are four factors that create an enabling context for SCO’s growth as a powerful Asian organization. One, the strengthening of Sino-Russian ties. This gives special momentum to the SCO. The year 2006 is the Year of Russia and Year 2007 the Year of China. The two believe that “China and Russia should strengthen support and strategic coordination when the international and regional situation is becoming increasingly complex.” The volume of bilateral trade has been growing at a rate of more than 30 percent for a seventh consecutive year. The Sino-Russian trade volume in 2005 hit an all-time high of $29.1 billion, a 37.1-percent jump on the previous year.
Two, what gives special momentum to the SCO’s growth is the energy that political commitment of the top leadership of China and Russia brings to the organization. The fact is that SCO has been driven by these two major powers. Three, like China, Russia too is emerging as a major economic power.
Four, direct US military presence in the region. Until July 2005 US had two bases in Central Asia. Having been turned out of Uzbekistan, the US has now base only in one country. The SCO grouping is also making an effort to remove the US presence in Central Asia along the lines of the postwar East Asia. China continues to view Washington as a factor in the Japanese hostility toward it. Similarly, many view the tensions between South and North Korea an indirect result of Washington’s need to justify its military presence in East Asia.
Clearly all these prompt Asia’s potentially most powerful organization to stake a role for itself in global affairs. It will be a major player in the energy wars. Also built into its expansion is its emergence as an Asian organization that will challenge the US-dictated global norms. The reiterative message that comes from the two major partners is that without multilateralism and multiculturalism it is impossible to tackle the multiple challenges — terrorism, extremism and separation — facing the world.
This has been illustrated through three specific steps taken over the last one year. First, the July 5 call by the SCO leadership to the US to remove its troops from Central Asia. That led to the Uzbekistan government’s decision to close down the US base. Second, Moscow’s decision to invite the Hamas foreign minister to Russia. This was done in the face of stinging criticism from the US.
The third major step that evoked an open reaction from Washington was the Iran question — more specifically the invitation to the Iranian president to attend the SCO summit. Early this month US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld criticized Russia and China for seeking to draw Iran closer to the SCO. “It strikes me as strange that one would want to bring into an organization that says it’s against terrorism ... one of the leading terrorist nations in the world, Iran,” Rumsfeld said. The SCO hit back. Zhang Deguang, secretary-general of the SCO, made it clear that he did not consider Iran a terrorist state.
Reasons for Washington’s involvement in the region include controlling energy resources and fighting anti-US militants. The United States has supported a new oil pipeline from Baku, Azerbaijan, to Ceyhan, Turkey. This has led some to charge that the United States is really after the region’s oil.
China and Russia have always been opposed to the presence of US troops in Central Asia, an energy-rich region both consider within their sphere of influence. Experts also say Beijing sees the US military presence along its western border as part of Washington’s strategy to contain China. Energy is another major Chinese concern, especially securing access to oil and natural gas from the Caspian basin located roughly 1,500 miles to the west.
In the coming years the role of two major countries — India and Japan — will be decisive. India, which initially lobbied hard for an observer status in the SCO, is now seeking full membership. As for Japan, China has continuously sought normalization of its ties with Tokyo. If India and Japan both come within the SCO fold, it would spell more cooperative competition in Asia rather than confrontation and competitiveness.
Washington’s response to a strengthening of the SCO will have great impact on future global politics. Too much suspicion of the SCO by Washington will create more instability within the region. However for SCO itself, the foremost challenge will be on the home front: How to take along their own population and make them stakeholders in this vision for a sane new world. That calls for more cordial relations between the state and society in the SCO countries. This is also necessary to ensure that the SCO continues to expand its influence as a major force in international affairs.
