Perhaps the Israeli attack on Lebanon will serve as a much-needed wake-up call to the United States. Perhaps the Bush administration will finally realize that its increasingly costly efforts to pacify Iraq and spread democracy throughout the Arab world both hinge in large part on the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. And perhaps leaders in Congress will realize that unconditional support for Israel coupled with patronizing debates about America’s Arab allies only increase regional tension — ironically hurting Israel’s interests, not to mention enraging Arab public opinion.

But sadly, neither the Bush administration nor Congress is likely to have an epiphany and realize, in the face of immense danger for both the region and the United States, that perpetuating the status quo — and maintaining current American policies in the Middle East — offers neither peace, democracy, reform, nor the tenuous stability which has characterized Arab-Israeli ties since the end of the end of the Lebanese civil war in 1990. The house of cards may finally have begun to fall.

To its credit, the Bush administration has, in recent months, changed its posture toward the region, adopting a more realistic perspective.

This can be most easily seen in its relations with Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Whereas both relationships were, to varying degrees, strained during President Bush’s first term, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has subtly changed tact vis-à-vis Cairo and Riyadh. In Egypt, the performance of the Muslim Brotherhood in last fall’s parliamentary elections raised red flags, as the State Department — already coping with the Hamas victory in Palestine — suddenly realized it best be careful what it wished for in Cairo. Saudi Arabia weathered continual criticism in the wake of Sept. 11. In reality, US-Saudi cooperation on nearly every front — codified in the US-Saudi Strategic Dialogue initiative — has strengthened over the past year.

But reality has not set in regarding Israel, where the Bush administration has lacked the energy or will to press for implementation of the road map peace plan. Instead, it has seemingly used the Hamas election as an excuse to refrain from forcing the parties to the negotiating table. Israel, in turn, has proceeded down the path of unilateralism, attempting to draw its permanent borders without the input of the Palestinians.

Meanwhile, Congress has advocated hawkish policies toward Iran, Syria, and Palestine. Simultaneously, it has repeatedly engaged in political debates which belittle America’s Arab allies — for example, criticizing Saudi Arabia’s domestic policies and commitment to the war on terror; acting outright patronizing to Egypt while insisting Cairo democratize; and offending the United Arab Emirates over Dubai Ports World.

Last month, an amendment demanding a reduction in US assistance to Egypt was narrowly defeated in the House of Representatives. Most recently, the House has reaffirmed its support for the Bush administration’s Iraq policy — this despite sagging public support for the war.

Clearly, one can expect to see more of the same in the face of the Hezbollah-Israeli clash. Congress is set to pass legislation condemning Hezbollah, fully endorsing Israeli military actions, ignoring the plight of the Lebanese, and tying Israel’s 60 year war with the Palestinians with America’s war on terror. Or, as stated by Representative Elliot Engel (D-New York), “Israel’s fight against terrorism is our fight...We have already heard words from the naysayers telling Israel to use restraint...We should let Israel finish the job.”

Despite these developments, there is an opportunity for the United States to play a constructive role in arranging a cease-fire. To do so, the US must pressure Israel to suspend its ongoing military campaign which not only is destroying Lebanon’s infrastructure, but risks rekindling sectarian violence. Additionally, the Bush administration must engage with Damascus and work with its partners in the Arab world, the United Nations, and international community.

Ideally, Congress would not quickly provide Israel a blank check, keeping in mind that the current battle did not originate last week, but is part of a long, unresolved conflict that once again is primarily victimizing innocent Lebanese.

Moreover, America has other interests at stake in the region — namely Iraq. Aware of these facts, Sen. John Warner (R-Virginia), chairman of the Armed Services Committee, cautioned his colleagues not to be hasty, and warned, “Yes, I conclude our support for Israel is very strong, but it cannot be unconditional.”

The tragedy unfolding in Lebanon highlights the fact that the Bush administration’s regional policies limit America’s ability to manage the crisis, much less to restrain Israel, hold talks with Tehran regarding nuclear proliferation, champion regional democracy, or chart a course which allows the US military to leave Iraq. It also makes laughable and hopelessly irrelevant recent congressional debates about the Arab world.

— David Dumke is principal of the Washington-based MidAmr Group. [email protected].