Both Chinese and Indian officials characterized Chinese President Hu Jintao’s three-day visit to India as “trust building”. Hu moved on yesterday to Pakistan for an arguably higher profile four-day visit and “trust building” is almost certain to be part of his mission there as well. Mutual trust is not however an issue between Pakistan and China, which have been close allies for 55 years. But Hu will be anxious to offer whatever help he can to continue the build up of trust between Islamabad and New Delhi.
There are two reasons why the Chinese want to assist in moving the rapprochement along. The first is that its new international influence is based on commercial, not military, might. The growth of trade within a Sino-Indian-Pakistani triangle can only be facilitated by a peaceful resolution of existing territorial differences. Beijing wants to broker a settlement, similar perhaps to the compromise that followed Chinese president Jiang Zemin’s 1996 Indian visit. That trip began the defusing on Sino-Indian tensions over disputed borders. From a Kashmir settlement would grow rapidly three-cornered trade that will further boost China’s global standing. The second and more important reason is that China wants to assert a regional political role. American foreign policy, particularly toward Pakistan, has been dictated by its own narrow and often misinformed aims in the Bush war on terror. The debacle in Iraq, the partisan obstruction of a Palestinian settlement and now the growing possibility of further failure in Afghanistan have undermined Washington’s regional standing. Beijing is moving quietly but strongly to replace US influence with the strong argument that it has no other agenda other than the drive for its own prosperity along with that of its neighbors.
India of course is the more important economic partner for Beijing. The plan to double Sino-Indian trade to $40 billion within just three years is remarkable. However, even the most conservative analysts believe such a quantum leap is perfectly achievable for the world’s two fastest growing economies. Pakistan’s economy is far less dynamic but because of its historic links with India, as and when the Kashmir dispute is resolved, it can expect a massive cross-border economic boost. Equally, the Chinese are already investing heavily in Pakistan, not least in the construction of a mega port and hinterland infrastructure on Pakistan’s southwest coast. This will give Chinese exporters a gateway to the Arabian Sea and also a route for the import of the energy and raw materials for which its economy has an almost insatiable appetite.
India and Pakistan have achieved much by themselves in the resolution of their differences, despite terror attacks in India and weapons-testing tensions. The Americans, Russians and British have all sought to edge the process along, but each has its own particular agenda. China’s interests however seem, comparatively, simpler and clearer. It wants two large and stable markets on its doorstep, allied by commercial rather than geopolitical ambitions.
