How critical is the situation in Iraq? It depends on who you ask and when. Common sense tells us that the situation there has always been critical. In fact, one could dare claim that the country has been stricken with political and social upheaval since the early 1990s, when the US led its “coalition of the willing” to liberate Kuwait.

The 1990-91 war never brought peace or tranquility to the region; rather, it agitated internal strife within Iraq. Over a decade of US-led UN economic sanctions wrought untold destruction to the very fabric of Iraqi society. The US government calculated that a weary Iraq could not withstand a future military action, and that ravished Iraqis would welcome the toppling of Saddam Hussein.

But there was no honeymoon to speak of, even during those early stages of occupation. The situation was critical then, as it continues to be so, but Iraq, nonetheless, was losing its appeal as a primary news item, for those who were being killed were simply members of the crowd most hostile to the occupation, even if civilians.

The Bush administration, its faithful strategists and PR managers have done their utmost to carry out the president’s vision for a new Iraq that would serve as an icon of democracy for a new Middle East, and have worked tirelessly to sell the “achievements” of the administration to an unimpressed public, who slowly but determinately realized that that the Iraq war was a colossal mistake.

I do remember the days when I predicted similar scenarios to what is taking place today, only to be shouted out by right-wing radio show hosts, for my apparent lack of patriotism. Now the president himself, accompanied by leading army generals and senators are saying more or less what progressive writers and intellectuals have contended for years: Bush is finally seeing some similarities between Iraq and Vietnam, and top American officials are candidly talking of Iraq as a “problem” and a “very difficult” one at that. (A similar storm was unleashed in Britain when Gen. Sir Richard Dannatt, chief of the general staff, said in a newspaper interview that the presence of foreign troops might be “exacerbating” the situation in Iraq.)

But why did it take the Bush administration all of this time to reach such a simple conclusion that was deduced by almost three quarters of the US population? Did 650,000 Iraqi and nearly 2,800 American lives have to be wasted in order for the president to summon Gen. John Abizaid, overall US commander for the Middle East, and Gen. George Casey, in command of the American troops in Iraq to discuss the options out of the quagmire?

The bipartisan Iraq Study Group, appointed by the US Congress and co-chaired by former Secretary of State James Baker to examine alterative solutions to the growing Iraqi nightmare, will not reveal its findings and recommendations until next January. Leaks made to the media predict that the very gloomy report could make extraordinary recommendations, including phased withdrawal, diplomatically engaging Iran and Syria, among other options. But even with such a dramatic shift in approach, Baker warns “there is no magic bullet for the situation in Iraq. It is very, very difficult.”

President Bush meanwhile, continues to wow his ardent followers with tired speeches of wars that must be won, democracies that must be achieved knowing deep inside that his dream of a clean Iraq victory is long gone.

At the time of the drafting of this article, Al-Sadr militants seem to be controlling the streets in Amara, south of Baghdad, ready to “liberate” other cities, while British forces are preparing a grim return to a city they victoriously handed over to the Iraqi police. America’s allies, the militias and their death squads, are increasingly determined to fight the “occupiers” as if the Iraq nightmare could possibly get any more frightening.

But I am still not sure why the situation is critical now, as opposed to last March, for example. Is it a last resort change of strategy prior to the US legislative midterm elections? The Republicans are trailing in the polls and a deciding factor in that is their botched Iraq strategy: Maybe a more pragmatic president who appreciates the intensity of the crisis and is doing his outmost to face it is the best image that Bush’s advisors can conjure up at such short notice.

It is anything but one of Karl Rove’s other “genius” ideas, but is certainly worth the effort. On Nov. 7, however, only the American voter has the power to decide whether to reward failure or to gracefully search for a way out.

— Ramzy Baroud’s latest book: The Second Palestinian Intifada: A Chronicle of a People’s Struggle (Pluto Press, London) is now available on Amazon.com.