Like any sizable flood or scandal, the unfolding drama over veteran Republican Congressman Mark Foley’s inappropriate, if not illegal, interactions with House pages — high school students hired for a semester to run errands for Congress — began as a trickle. Minor news briefs surfaced alleging Foley, who has served in the House of Representatives since 1994, may have harassed a page by sending unsolicited e-mails. While raising eyebrows, the initial reports did not set off alarm bells in this acrimonious campaign season. However, after initially sidestepping the charges leveled against him, Foley stunned Washington insiders by abruptly resigning. A week later, Republicans find themselves embroiled in a full-blown scandal that has mortally wounded the party’s chances of retaining control of Congress. So political damaging has the scandal become that even conservatives have demanded the resignation of Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert, the third in line of presidential succession.
It is a most unwelcome “October surprise” for the Republicans and the Bush administration who envisioned, for the third consecutive election cycle, using national crisis to hand Democrats another stinging defeat. With President Bush traveling the nation warning the electorate of the consequences of withdrawing forces from Iraq — “cutting and running” — and Secretary of State Rice embarking on a much ballyhooed trip to the Middle East, the Republicans were hoping for a week of positive press coverage. But instead the “patriotism and fear” campaign strategy has been derailed, evidenced by the president repeatedly commenting not on the war on terror, but the shameful behavior of Foley. The silver lining in Rice’s unproductive regional visit was that it was scarcely covered in the press — buried in the back pages of newspapers.
The personal peccadilloes of a member of Congress, even when shameful, usually have little impact beyond the individual involved. What makes the Foley case striking is that it involves underage children who are in the care of Congress. And, more damning, Foley’s problem was apparently known by Republican leaders for years; yet, the same Republican leadership which has made family values a key political principle did nothing to rectify the problem. Until his ignominious departure, Foley was chairman of the House Caucus on Missing and Exploited Children. These facts have angered not just the general public, but the base of the Republican coalition — social conservatives.
Democrats have long scratched their collective heads as to how Republicans, who have so blatantly erred in Iraq and the Middle East, could continue to score policy and electoral victories. This fall, before Foley’s name became infamous, Democrats finally believed American voters had begun rejecting President Bush’s proclamations about victory in Iraq, the state of the war on terror, and the Republican domestic agenda which has resulted in massive budget deficits and increased social tension. The recent disclosure of the National Intelligence Estimate and publication of famed political sleuth Bob Woodward’s “State of Denial” abruptly halted Republican momentum and put Democrats within striking distance in the upcoming election. The Foley scandal has placed an explanation mark after the Democratic mantra of “time for change.”
If Democrats expected an October surprise — revelations that periodically occur prior to US elections and heavily influence their results — it was not Foley. Lacking confidence, Democrats, who have toiled in the minority for twelve years, instead expected the White House to announce a major development in the war on terror — perhaps even the capture of Osama Bin Laden. Once again, the party thought it would be left tasting bitter defeat.
It shouldn’t have taken Foley’s freefall for Democrats to win on Nov. 7. The list of Republican failings is lengthy, and of far greater national consequence than the reprehensible conduct of an obscure congressman. It includes Iraq, management of the war on terror, Iran, the peace process (or lack there of), the economy, illegal immigration, energy, health care costs, Hurricane Katrina, and influence peddling.
US military deaths in Iraq will soon top 3,000, with thousands more seriously wounded. The cost of Iraq in dollars is staggering, and what is worse is that much of that money has been wasted through mismanagement and outright corruption. But US blood and treasure tell only part of the grim story in Iraq.
Nearly 50,000 Iraqis, according to credible estimates, have been killed since the US invasion. Civil war along the Tigris and Euphrates is no longer nascent, but very real and lethal.
Elsewhere in the Middle East, Lebanon was leveled as the US stood by and actively prevented a hasty cease-fire. While rhetorically extolling the virtues of democracy, the US has alienated many of its Arab allies. Support for the Palestinian Authority has been fickle at best. Until this week’s belated push, Mahmoud Abbas has been left to fend for himself. Iran is poised to go nuclear, and the humanitarian crises in Sudan and Palestine grow graver by the day. Collectively, Bush’s record does not auger well if the underlying goal is to limit the appeal of extremists.
Ironically, none of these issues, which Bush has to varying degree been in a position to influence, will be the final nail in the 2006 electoral coffin. Instead, it is Mark Foley’s conduct and the subsequent Republican cover-up, which the White House could neither influence nor control.
— David Dumke is principal of the Washington-based MidAmr Group. E-mail: [email protected]
