GEORGIA’S President Mikhail Saakashvili is playing a dangerous game with Russia. In the run-up to Thursday’s municipal elections, the Georgians arrested four Russian intelligence officers from the headquarters of Moscow’s two remaining local bases and charged them, and some Georgians picked up at the same time, with spying. This confrontational approach brought immediate reaction from the Putin Kremlin, which recalled its ambassador, cut transport and postal links, suspended all bank transfers, and blocked Georgian exports. It then deported 132 Georgian citizens from the large expatriate community in Russia, whose remittances play an important part in their country’s addled economy. As a result, angry voters rallied around their president.
However, Saakashvili’s confrontational approach seems extremely unlikely to do Georgia anything but harm. Russia is not about to surrender an ounce of leverage in the Caucasus. It has fostered and supported breakaway movements in Georgia’s Abkhazian and South Ossetian regions, charged Georgia full market price for energy supplies and only reluctantly agreed to quit its last two Soviet-era military bases by 2008.
Saakashvili may believe that he has taken out insurance by his close relations with Washington, which has been training and re-equipping the Georgian armed forces, with which he says he wants to join NATO. He also founded the GUAM bloc (Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova) as a would-be counterbalance to Russian influence. Additionally he has sought to establish close relations with the EU and this week even requested that Brussels send peacekeepers to Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Ironically, the EU-sponsored talks on possible independence for Kosovo could reinforce the case of Georgia’s would-be breakaway regions, a point Saakashvili made last week to the EU’s High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy Javier Solana.
The arrested Russian officers were eventually returned to Moscow after European mediation but Russia has not eased up its blockade. Putin may calculate this offers the best chance yet to bring the Georgians back into line. Though another NATO state on its border would clearly be unwelcome, the Kremlin’s main concern is the flow of men and supplies through Georgia to Chechen rebels, who continue to use the Pankisi Gorge region, despite join patrols of Russian and Georgian troops.
Saakashvili should never forget Moscow’s historic use of international diversions as cover for its own imperialistic housekeeping. Hungary was invaded in 1956 while the world watched France, Britain and Israel flounder in their attack on Egypt. The ruthless campaign against Chechen separatists was renewed as US tanks rolled into Iraq. Now the world is watching North Korea and Iran’s nuclear ambitions, Darfur’s tragedy and the Iraqi disaster. President Bush has enough on his plate. Would he really also go head to head with Moscow over five million nationalistic Georgians?
