Many moderate Nepalis were probably understandably irked by yesterday’s triumphalist rally of 20,000 Maoists in a Katmandu stadium marking what they described as their “victory.” It was never quite that. Even so, the conclusion of long weeks of hard bargaining with an agreement among all seven political parties including the Maoists, on disarmament, a formalized peace and the process of creating a new constitution, was certainly worth celebrating, not just by the Maoists but by all Nepalis.
Though the negotiations had been difficult, there was always a general feeling that they were not going to fail. The cease-fire had been a victory for common sense. The ten-year insurrection, costing 13,000 lives had been a disaster for everyone. There was the political will to find consensus. The points at issue involved the compromises that all sides had to make to achieve that.
In the midst of their celebrations, the Maoist may not, however, have been reflecting that they need to make further compromises, if they are to play a successful role in the new polity that will emerge from the deliberations of the Constitutional Assembly to be elected next June. When Nepal was still an absolute monarchy, a Maoist challenge to the feudal system that still obtains in part of the country and to the corrupt elite of courtiers that drew their power from the king, made political sense. But when King Gyanendra ended his absolute rule and handed power to political parties, the Maoist challenge became anachronistic. True, there are social and land reforms, which will benefit Maoist supporters in the countryside, that need to be introduced. But the idea that Nepal should become a one-party communist state with a command economy is anathema to the majority of Nepalese. All important support for the insurgents among the country’s middle classes was based largely upon the conviction that only the Maoists could break the power of the monarchy.
That has been achieved. The new constitution may or may not see the monarchy abolished. Many Nepalese would like to have a purely constitutional role for the king. What seems certain, however, is that never again will any Nepalese monarch be able to seize absolute power. The future for the Maoists, therefore, must rest within a multiparty system. The organization is going to have to morph from its role as a tough and uncompromising rebel group into a left-wing political entity which will have to indulge in the horse-trading of parliamentary democracy. How many of its supporters, cheering their leadership yesterday at the Katmandu rally realize this truth, remains to be seen.
There are still dangers ahead. Diehards among both Marxists and monarchists may seek to derail the delicate political process that is now getting under way. There may be attempts at outside interference. The UN monitors coming to the country to oversee the stockpiling of arms and the disengagement of soldiers and rebels, have a delicate task which will however be made much easier if the general political will for peace stays in place.
