The New UN proposals outlined yesterday in Kenya by Secretary-General Kofi Annan appear to offer a compromise solution between the full deployment of international troops in Darfur, which is opposed by the Sudanese government, and the African Union force, which itself admits that it has been struggling to make an impact on the continuing violence. The work-around, which is currently being considered by Khartoum, is that the African Union force should continue in place but be supported financially and logistically by UN peacekeeping forces.
The Sudanese likely suspect that such a hybrid deployment will prove the thin end of the wedge; once the UN has a foot in the door and assuming that the violence does not cease, the physical UN presence could start to grow. The UN may find itself in need of soldiers on the ground to protect its logistical and humanitarian bases or guard supply convoys moving through the large and lawless region of Darfur, which have come under assault before. Such a creeping deployment would likely be every bit as hard to stop as the brutal violence that has spurred the intervention of international forces in the first place.
Nevertheless, it is hard to see any alternate solution. The Janjaweed and rebel factions continue to clash, and rural, poverty-stricken communities continue to be victims of bloody assaults. The violence since 2003 has left hundreds of thousands dead or displaced in refugee camps. At worst, elements of the Sudanese armed forces (particularly in the form of air support) have been colluding, with or without the knowledge of their top commanders, in assaults on refugee camps and villages containing rebels or their supporters. To this appalling campaign of murder, rape, robbery and starvation have been added the growing tensions with neighboring Chad, whose government yesterday warned that the violence and refugees spilling over the border threatens regional stability. It is, therefore, imperative that whatever arrangements are made, they work quickly. Annan’s hybrid-force proposal should allow AU troops to move far more effectively in stopping the violence. The command of the mission will remain with the AU and UN military advisers. Police and security personnel can work from the AU headquarters. This remains then an excellent opportunity for AU members to work together to cool one of Africa’s hot zones (by far not the only one, even in East Africa). Properly resourced and supported, AU peacekeepers may have a real impact in Darfur.
The key factor remains the will of the Sudanese government to act decisively to bring an end to this dangerous tragedy. If Khartoum were to turn down the Annan compromise, it would send entirely the wrong message both to the international community and the southern Sudanese members of the Coalition government. That message would be that Khartoum simply doesn’t care that the Janjaweed militias (and possibly certain rogue elements within Sudan’s armed forces) are conducting a reign of terror against other Sudanese.
