The Makkah agreement, signed between rival Palestinian groups, Hamas and Fatah on Feb. 8, under the auspices of the Saudi leadership, was welcomed by thousands of cheering Palestinians throughout the Occupied Territories, and seen as the closing of a chapter of a bloody and tumultuous period of their history. Officially, although more subtly, there is an equal eagerness to bring a halt to the oppressive economic and diplomatic sanctions that have rendered most Palestinians unemployed and forced them to live well below the poverty line.
In fact, almost all Palestinians want to remember, if they must, the bloody clashes that have claimed the lives of over 90 people since December as a distant memory, a bitter deviation from a norm of unity and national cohesion according to which they want their struggle to be remembered.
Diplomatically, aides to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas of Fatah, and advisers to Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh are fanning out across the globe, each group heading to its traditional political milieus: the former group to Western Europe and the United States, and the latter to Middle Eastern and Islamic countries. Both Fatah and Hamas are keen to demonstrate that by endorsing the agreement, their fundamental position remains unchanged — an arduous task indeed.
The official reactions to the agreement, emanating from the four corners of the globe are hardly encouraging. The so-called Middle East Quartet — consisting of the United States, the United Nations, the European Union and Russia — although welcomed the agreement, hoping that it might produce the desired result, reiterated their conditions for the lifting of sanctions. These conditions are the recognition of Israel, the renouncing of violence and the acceptance of past agreements signed between both parties, namely the Oslo Accords.
Though the Quartet is seen to have withheld its final judgment on whether the formulation of the unity government constitutes an acceptance, either directly or by implication of its three conditions, Israel is embarking on its own diplomatic campaign to heighten pressure. Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, who was recently in Munich to attend a global security conference, has reportedly met EU’s defense and security coordinator Javier Solana, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the foreign ministers of Austria, Sweden and other countries. She has also spoken to US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice twice over the phone, as reported in the Israeli daily Haaretz. Her phone diplomacy has also reached Germany, Britain and Norway. Livni’s behavior is but a mere expression of the attitude that is currently being developed in Israel; the international community must continue to pressure Palestinians until the three conditions are met in full to the satisfaction of the Israelis.
The main predicament to the Israeli quest, however, is the same old dilemma: Palestinians can never, under any circumstance and no matter how great concessions are, meet Israeli expectations, for these expectations are crafted in so clever a way that makes it practically impossible for any Palestinian leader or government to comply. Neither late President Yasser Arafat, who wore an Israeli flag pin side by side with a Palestinian one on his Khaki jacket managed to live up to Israel’s seemingly “reasonable” demands, nor has his successor, Mahmoud Abbas, who become the darling of Israel and Washington when Hamas swept the majority of votes in January 2006’s legislative elections, which subsequently led to the devastating sanctions. The Israeli government labeled Abbas “weak” and “indecisive.” He too, by the same standards, was not able to meet Israel’s conditions, why should we expect Hamas or any other to do so? The practical Israeli position — as opposed to rhetorical — is rather clear: let the Palestinians continue to be collectively punished, succumb to internal feuds and dwell in their limitless misery to allow Israel the needed time to further consolidate its territorial schemes in the West Bank and occupied Jerusalem. Tel Aviv also wants more Palestinian communities locked up in bantustan-like localities, while Jewish settlements continue to be conveniently linked up to so-called “Israel proper” using the pretext of security and the mammoth and encroaching imprisonment wall as the means to achieve such an end.
Palestinians believe that the agreement is sufficient to end the state of chaos in the Occupied Territories and to convince the international community that enough concessions have been made and that the time has come for the sanctions to be lifted.
The final judgment on the Makkah agreement is likely to be pronounced after two significant meetings: a tripartite summit that would bring together Rice, Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert on Feb. 19, and two days later, a crucial meeting in Berlin of the Quartet’s ministers.
Evidently, the US final position is expected to be slightly amended, if not a carbon copy of that of Israel’s. No surprises there since President Bush’s administration foolishly amalgamated its Middle East policy with Israel’s self-serving national and regional agenda.
Considering the US’ own endeavors to undermine Iran’s strategic outreach in the region, it might indeed be rational for the US to live with the Makkah agreement and deal with the “moderate” elements within the Palestinian government, even if temporarily. Yet again, the US hardly behaves in accordance with its own interests in the Middle East if such attitudes run counter to Israel’s own regional designs.
The next few weeks will reveal the potency of the Makkah agreement and determine the next step for all parties involved. Its failure, however, which remains a dreadful possibility, shall have detrimental effects on the Palestinian people and their future unity and will further undermine their national agenda for years to come.
