THE impending arrival in the Arabian Gulf of another US aircraft carrier and a flotilla of other vessels to augment the present US naval presence there is cause for considerable concern. Nineteenth-century gunboat diplomacy is not going to force the Iranian government into scrapping its nuclear program. All that the implied threat of force does is raise the stakes. Doing so will not work because no one, other than those who have convinced themselves of the inherent malevolence of the US, believes that Washington would be so insane as to launch a direct attack on Iran. The show of strength is blindly counterproductive and all it does is annoy and anger Tehran and reinforce — rightly — its determination not to be dictated to.
The presence of the US fleet in the Gulf is a bad tactic for another and more frightening reason. Events could easily spin out of control, leading to catastrophic results in a body of water through which 40 percent of the world’s oil regularly moves. Some in the far-from-united Iranian government and military might want to goad the US into an attack. Iran says that it has developed a missile that could take out a large vessel. What if it decided to mine the Strait of Hormuz, thus trapping US ships in the Gulf? What if terrorists decided to spark conflict with an attack on a US vessel and the US were fooled into thinking it was the Iranians who had attacked? What if the captain of a US vessel, believing an attack imminent, decided to fire first? It has happened before: Iran Air Flight 655 with 290 aboard was shot down in 1988 by a US cruiser because the ship’s captain allegedly thought it a bomber intent on attack.
The disastrous effects of isolating and pressurizing Tehran are seen too in the way it now reacts to its minorities. There is real fear of paranoia setting in, with Iranian Arabs and Sunnis in danger of being seen as traitors. Last week three Arab Iranians were hanged, bringing to 12 the number executed since the Ahvaz bombings in late 2005 and early 2006. A further 13 Iranian Arabs are on death row despite allegations that their trials were a travesty of justice. In the troubled southeast of the country, the authorities have just arrested 65 Sunni suspects following the Feb. 14 bombing in Zahedan, accusing them not only of being members of a extremist group intent on sewing conflict between Shiites and Sunnis but operating under American and British direction. Tempting though it must to see outside hands at work in the attacks, the idea that Iran’s Arabs and its Sunnis are allies of the US is a conspiracy theory gone much too far. This slide into demonizing Iran’s Arab and Sunni communities is deeply worrying — but it would not happen if Tehran were not so isolated and fearful. The only sane way foreword, both for these two communities and for peace in the Gulf as a whole, must be unconditional dialogue with Iran. Despite differences, Saudi Arabia and its Gulf partners are working to that end. Where is Washington’s — and Europe’s — commitment to peace?
