Massive environmental pressures were exerted on the world’s leading environmentally polluting countries ahead of their two-day Potsdam summit that began yesterday. But politics is ever the art of the possible. Most of the environmental ministers from the G-8 nations, joined by their counterparts from Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa will be sensitive to their own economic interests. Put baldly, even though the case for the curtailment of so-called greenhouse gases seems overwhelming, extraneous considerations of international competitiveness and domestic prosperity remain paramount to politicians hoping to get re-elected. It was this imperative which caused the Bush administration to trash America’s subscription to the protocol in its very earliest days in office. US big business thought the costs too high and would have none of it.
The gentle change in Washington’s view has come about because US corporations have realized that the application of technology to reducing harmful emissions is a new and highly profitable business opportunity, on which the Europeans and the Japanese have in seven years established a significant lead. It seems ironically that it will be the economic argument, rather than a recognition that stemming climate change is an urgent challenge, that will swing the Americans behind Kyoto and whatever deal succeeds it in 2012. As ever the arguments boil down to money.
But even though the countries meeting in Potsdam account for fully two-thirds of global pollution, with the United States the worst offender, it is no good a deal being cut purely among the top table nations. Somehow, arrangements must be made to allow developing countries to take advantage of sophisticated and expensive new environmentally friendly technologies. It is already possible to fear Washington bulldozing through policies that punish poor countries that are not prepared to accept high-cost credits that allow them to re-tool their nascent industries. One key contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, which has been little mentioned, even by the strident environmental lobby, is the cement industry. Its products literally hold together and underpin economic growth. The view might however be taken that the much-feared US-led recession when it comes, as it must do one day, will offer an extraordinary opportunity. With sufficient vision and dedication, funds could be found around the world to allow industries to clean up their acts at a time when low demand no longer drives them to maximize production.
A system of credits could be created to permit polluters to reconfigure their plants, against the time when the markets recover. Such credits should also be applied to developing countries, either to improve their existing plants or construct brand new state-of-the-art facilities.
The aim would be that when the good times return and factories start running at full and increased capacity, the damage they do will be significantly reduced.
