Somalia is a nation of profound paradoxes and a web of political conundrum — a country where perception is always reality, the “mundane” is a cherished deadly thrill, “new” political dynamics are nothing but old, and, potential “solutions” are problems. But, that is not all.
Once again, Somalia has become a magnetic political rink that lures powerful entities with incompatible strategic interests into a potentially deadly competition that causes more suffering for the people of the country.
In the past it was the superpowers of the Cold War who armed Somalia and paved the way to its ongoing demise. Today, it is partners in the “global war on terror”: Ethiopia, a country that has lately become known as “the Hegemon of the Horn” and the US. Beneath the veneer of their mutual strategic interest there is an intriguing political undercurrent that is rapidly gathering momentum as Prime Minister Meles Zenawi and the leadership of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) continue their “business as usual” approach and implement a set of initiatives that add fuel to the inter-clan deadly polarization and keep Somalia in perpetual chaos.
The Ethiopian-US invasion prematurely ended a delicate peace process and threw Mogadishu back into that all too familiar vacuum of nihilism. Today, motors and artilleries are routinely fired from all directions and a full-fledged insurgency is under way.
The latter was ignited by the Ethiopian occupation that is seen by the majority of Somalis as that country’s centuries-old hegemonic aspiration coming to fruition. Ethiopia continues to settle thousands of Ethiopian families in various regions such as “Somaliland” and “Puntland” that could, in due course, make annexation of Somalia a tantalizing option.
That is why many Somalis are generally skeptical of the authenticity of the TFG (the TFG deputy prime minister and interior minister recently insinuated annexation enthusiastically).
According to Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, “The situation in Somalia is broadly positive in a sense that the transitional government is embarking on a reconciliation process.” But, according to the Somali civil societies and others a reconciliation conference that grants one of the parties in conflict the sole authority to dictate who participates, under what terms and preconditions, and more importantly, who arbitrates would, at best, prove an extravagant exercise in futility.
In the mean time, the Bush administration is facing a great deal of pressure. The administration has apparently started to cleanse itself from the influence of a number of Islamophobic and zealot officials; lawmakers such as Russ Feingold, a ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on African Affairs, are publicly expressing their dissatisfaction with the current policy toward Somalia and are soliciting a better alternative.
Of course the Bush administration realizes the importance of restoring law and order in Mogadishu and establishing a “broad-based” government to realize its strategic goals. The State Department is actively pushing to bring back ousted leaders such as the last speaker of the Parliament, Sharif Hassan Aden, and the Islamic Courts leaders such as Shiekh Sharif Ahmed. These leaders carry significant political clout that could help disarm Mogadishu, restore peace and order, and give credence to any future (mutually organized) intra-Somali reconciliation conference. But neither one is in Meles’ approved list.
For Meles, maintaining the status quo is the sure approach to attaining his overall objective. It is what diverted attention away from him; what veiled his dictatorial tendencies and his regime’s systematic disenfranchisement of certain ethnic groups such as the Amhara; what gave him a carte blanche on human rights abuse; and, of course, secured his country an endless follow of US taxpayers’ dollars as a “partner” in the perpetual global war on terror.
Obviously, that which benefits Meles does hurt Somalia.
— Abukar Arman is a freelance writer who lives in the US.
difference between the TFG led by Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi and President Abdullahi Yusuf and the Ethiopian regime led by Meles. They consider the first duo as self-serving charlatans and the latter as their master and puppeteer.
Yet, as ironic as it may be, the trio insists on convening a “national reconciliation congress” and is already appealing to the international community for the most important element in attaining their objective: “Urgent funding.” They are determined to bring together 3,000 Somalis who would neither see this as flawed process nor as a delusional enterprise.
