Where is Ehud Olmert these days? After describing the Arab peace initiative put forth at the Riyadh summit as revolutionary and then proposing the idea of a regional peace conference with many of his Arab neighbors, he has fallen silent. And there has been a renewed Israeli attack in the Gaza Strip. Since Olmert found King Abdullah’s land-for-peace proposal so intriguing, what is he waiting for? Another Netanya, which effectively buried the plan when it was introduced in 2002? Or is Olmert’s plan to delay indefinitely any move toward peace and become yet another example of the nonaction Israeli leaders are so adept at?
The biding of time is endless but never uneventful. Wait until the Israeli elections, until the next American elections, for a new group of envoys to shuttle around the region, a new car bomb attack on Israelis, another brutal siege of Gaza, another cease-fire, a new Palestinian government and whether any or all of this might end the economic blockade or usher in yet another period of waiting.
Viewed in this context, the motive behind Olmert’s seeming desire for progress is no secret. Indeed, he himself makes no effort to conceal it. By way of introduction he said that Israel could not ignore the positive developments that have taken place in moderate Arab states, and as a token of this recognition Israel suddenly, though not surprisingly, has taken a look at the Arab peace initiative which it had ignored for a full five years. By agreeing to consider the initiative, Israel hopes to transform it into a drawn-out process of extracting compromises from the Arabs, just as it turned its agreement to deal with the Palestine Liberation Organization into a protracted process of forcing the Palestinians against the wall. Olmert does seek modifications in the peace initiative which he believes could serve as a basis for negotiations. This would mainly concern the right of return.
Olmert ignores the content of the Riyadh resolution but likes the call by some Arab states to enter into a dialogue with Israel. Will it really enter a dialogue aimed at reaching a settlement? It is unlikely that Tel Aviv would ever agree to this or any other Arab peace initiative. The Arabs should be wary of deluding themselves into thinking it would. Israel would only be prepared to accept the resolution as a basis for negotiations — which is to say that it would accept the principle of withdrawal but then haggle over the time and phasing of the withdrawal and over final borders and over Jerusalem’s being the capital. In short, Israel will agree to no point whatsoever in the Arab peace initiative. It is busy now buttering up the moderate camp. It would like to come across as responding to this camp —at least until another Arab summit is held.
It is clear that Israel will not turn to peace out of benevolence or through unconditional dialogue; it can only be pressured into doing so.
