History will record 2007 as the year when the high hopes at the dawning of a new century finally succumbed to reality. It has been a year of continuing or increasing violence around the world and of the gathering storm clouds of economic recession.
For the Middle East, after the Palestinian partition by the Hamas takeover in Gaza, the embers of a Middle East peace settlement were fanned into a weak flame at Annapolis. The Abbas administration once again has Israeli negotiators to talk to, but is already being exposed to the time-honored Israeli tactics of provocation with an eye to wrecking even those tentative talks. Expanding illegal settlements around Jerusalem, despite a commitment not to, is an outrage which the rest of the world watches but remains silent about.
In Afghanistan, the Taleban fight continues. NATO forces, operating under a UN mandate, have not made the full military commitment that is required, and the result has been that the insurgents are becoming bolder. Worse, the international community has still not handed over much of the aid it has promised so the Karzai administration which is struggling to deliver jobs and economic growth. In Iraq, the realization by Sunni tribes that their Al-Qaeda allies had no interest in the welfare of Iraqis has led to a dramatic rejection of terrorism. Meanwhile Iran, fearing a partitioned and unstable neighbor, reined in the Shiite militias in Iraq. The effect of that has been to make it seem as if Bush’s “surge” is working. But with the Maliki government still struggling to function coherently and US troop withdrawals already under way, the current decrease in violence looks discouragingly temporary. In addition, Turkish raids in Northern Iraq may light a dangerous new fuse in a once-stable part of the country.
Tensions between Washington and Tehran over Iran’s nuclear program eased with the US intelligent assessment that Iran had abandoned its nuclear weapons plans four years ago. But as the old year closed, the US’ other nuclear challenger, North Korea, was failing to deliver on its decommissioning promises.
In the Sudan nothing got better. The coalition government resulting from the peace deal with the south seemed to be falling apart and Darfur remained a humanitarian and political disaster with crimes being committed by all. The overwhelmed AU peacekeeping contingent has been reinforced by an alarmingly ill-equipped and muddled UN force. Pakistan, meanwhile, teeters on the brink of chaos following the Bhutto assassination. No one benefits from this murder than bigots and lords of misrule.
Finally, triggered by greedy US mortgage companies, worldwide recession looms as market confidence dwindles after a long, heady boom. Potentially radical changes in both the economic and physical climate seem certain with rough times ahead. It is thus with more than usual fervor — and hope — that we wish each other a happy new year.
