THE savage murders on Tuesday of at least 50 Kenyans hiding in a church sent the death toll in the country’s postelectoral violence toward 300. This, it seems, is the price that once-stable Kenya must pay for Mwai Kibaki’s blatant poll rigging. When 16 government ministers, including a vice president, lose their seats in a general election, there is an inescapable and obvious conclusion that the whole administration must be unwanted. Yet Kibaki expects people to believe that, despite the setback, he won a narrow victory over his rival Raila Odinga for the presidency.
The three-day delay by the Kenyan Electoral Commission (ECK) in declaring the results was clearly used to stuff ballot boxes. In one “win” for Kibaki, 115 percent of the local electorate supposedly voted. Elsewhere, the Kibaki vote was inflated by some 25,000 ballot papers after being signed off by local returning officers. So obvious was this electoral fraud that some senior ECK officials are now disassociating themselves from the result.
What is happening in Kenya needs to be viewed in the wider African perspective. There is nothing new about phony elections on the continent. What was new, however, was the feeling that Kenya was at a crossroads where, for the first time, the voters were going to reject a government which had failed miserably to deliver on its promises to curb corruption.
By trying to cling to power, Kibaki has, at a stroke, destroyed confidence in the democratic system. It was notable during the campaign that so many voters were hoping the election would bring in nontribal politics in which citizens saw themselves first and foremost as Kenyans rather than as Kikuyu, Luo, Masai, Kamba or another tribe. What is worse, the violence that has gripped the country has actually polarized around tribes, so that even Red Cross workers, hurrying to the wounded of whatever side, are being attacked if they are of the “wrong” tribe. This is the most disastrous of outcomes. Kibaki has no political legitimacy. Kenya is in turmoil. Its economy is under threat and most seriously, suddenly it matters what tribe you belong to.
At first sight, the international community, particularly the former colonial power, Britain, has been oddly mealy-mouthed in its reaction by calling simply for “negotiations” between Kibaki and Odinga. Odinga rightly asks what there is to negotiate. In three days of fraudulent manipulation, the will of the people has been flouted. But on the basis that possession is nine-tenths of the law, Kibaki, having had himself sworn in for a second term, is in a relatively strong position. As long as the police, the army and supporters from his own Kikuyu tribe remain loyal, he can hang on to control — though his country crashes and burns. It is indeed only by negotiation that he can be eased from power and such negotiations may include private financial inducements that only the international community can provide. As the increasing number of deaths in Kenya illustrates, there is clearly no point in expecting Kibaki to act in the best interest of all the people.
