The Iranian reasoning behind the dangerous naval incident at the mouth of the Gulf on Jan. 6 is hard to fathom. Conflict came extremely close, Iranian lives could have been easily lost, and it is difficult to understand how Iran could have gained real diplomatic or political advantage from such an outcome.

For once with an international dispute, there is only a little doubt what happened at about 5.00 a.m. local time that morning.

Three US ships from the Fifth Fleet, a cruiser, a guided missile destroyer and a frigate were entering the narrow Strait of Hormuz.

Five Iranian speedboats were detected on the radar as they charged toward the American ships. They came within 200 meters.

A weird message apparently reached American ships over the radio: “I am coming at you. You will explode in a couple of minutes.” White boxes were placed in the sea in front of the American warships.

Correctly in my view, for a ship’s captain is responsible for the lives of all on board his ship, the order was given to prepare to open fire at the Iranian boats. Luckily, just at that moment the Iranians turned away.

Perhaps the fire of just one heavy machine-gun would have been sufficient to destroy an Iranian speedboat.

Naval commanders, both American and Iranian, will be well aware of a number of incidents in the area that have added to the present tensions. In 1988, the USS Vincennes, apparently in a deeply shocking mistake, shot down an Iran Air passenger jet on a scheduled flight killing 290 people. It was thought to be a fighter-bomber. In 2000, the USS Cole was hit by an Al-Qaeda suicide boat in Aden harbor. 17 US sailors lost their lives.

Last year Iran illegally detained 15 sailors and Royal Marines belonging to HMS Cornwall. They were threatened with a trial before being released after 13 days. The Royal Navy is still smarting from this embarrassing event.

Following the incident on the Jan. 6 the White House said: “We urge the Iranians to refrain from such provocative actions that could lead to a dangerous incident in the future.”

A State Department spokesman declared that America would: “confront Iranian behavior where it seeks to do harm either to us or our friends and allies in the region.”

The Pentagon said of the incident, which lasted for some 20 minutes, that it was: “careless, reckless and potentially hostile.”

The Iranian Foreign Ministry firmly plays down what had occurred: “This is an ordinary issue that happens for the two sides every once in a while and after the identification of the two sides, the issue is resolved.” Certainly, vessels from the two sides do come close to each other in this comparatively small and highly sensitive waterway.

The United States has deployed a huge naval force near the Gulf. There are two carrier groups for the first time since the US-led invasion of Iraq. They are supposed to offer comfort and support to America’s allies, and be a warning to Iran.

Why did the Iranians risk their sailors’ lives in such a foolish manner? We can assume the Iranian commanders are well aware the American captains are entitled, under their rules of engagement, to open fire in self-defense and to take pre-emptive action in certain situations. I offer two different answers.

The incident took place just before President George Bush set off to the Middle East, mainly to attempt to give a push to the peace process. On balance I do not think this visit supplied the reason for the Iranian behavior.

More likely, I think, is that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) is an extraordinary organization, and one that seems not to be always under strict government control, even though President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad served with it during the Iran-Iraq War, as did many of today’s establishment figures. It has grown into a rival to the Iranian Army, Navy and Air Force and it is seen to have a privileged position.

It has business and commercial interests which it is believed are worth over £500 million.

To make Iranian thinking even more difficult to comprehend, only a few days ago Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, raised the possibility of restoring diplomatic relations with the United States. He made it clear this would not happen soon.

There is today deep suspicion between the United States and Iran on many fronts including nuclear policy, Iraq, Afghanistan and Arab-Israel. There is every possibility there will be further dangerous incidents in the Gulf before long.