The re-election of Boris Tadic as Serbian president means that when Kosovo declares independence as expected in the next few weeks, the underlying political reaction in Belgrade will not match the public fury, especially that led by Tadic’s defeated nationalist rival, Tomislav Nikolic, deputy leader of the hard-line Serbian Radical Party (SRP).
Tadic campaigned on the slogan “Both Kosovo and the EU”. He could have done no less. Had he wavered in his rejection of Kosovan independence, he would very probably have lost the election. As it is, he will be mindful that Nikolic’s pro-Russian and vehemently anti-Kosovar platform attracted 47 percent of voter support. The SRP has vowed to “take steps” if the government now peacefully accepts Kosovo’s breakaway.
But Tadic knows that for him to take Serbia toward EU membership, he will have to confine himself to angry verbal protests in the face of Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence. He will also need to step up the hunt for Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic and his military henchman Ratko Mladic. The prize of EU membership will be the economic transformation that will overtake the country, hopefully bolstering and completing the free-market reforms that were put in place during his first administration. Though many Serbs grumble about unemployment and only slowly improving living standards, they have seen what EU membership has already done for two other Balkan countries, Romania and Bulgaria. Kosovo, though an emotive issue, was probably not decisive because voters around the world tend to vote first and foremost for their pocket books. And most Serbs are deeply weary of 20 years of bitter confrontation with neighbors and the international community.
Then there is, of course, a hidden carrot within EU membership. Given Brussels’ largely removed internal borders and long-term aim of political unity, the time will come when Kosovo, either by itself or in partnership with Albania will also be admitted to the EU, along with Macedonia. At that point any Serbian claim to Kosovo will have become nugatory. Everyone will be a European.
The Serbs should be reminded that though its original format — the European Iron and Steel Community — was economic, the impetus has always been political in that the EU’s founders were determined to create a political system that would stop European powers from ever again going to war. The same aim must attend the expansion of the EU into the rest of the Balkans — to bring an end to conflict by establishing economic prosperity and permanent political dialogue.
It, therefore, now behooves the EU to work as quickly as possible on Serbian entry. Tadic’s re-election was a victory for the forces of moderation and hope. There are five years of Tadic’s second and last presidential term ahead for the process to be advanced as close as possible, if not actually to Serbian accession. Brussels must not betray Serb aspirations.
