Had the $100 barrel of oil happened 20 years ago and Russia's present oil and gas been flowing to the world then as it is now, communism and the Soviet Union might not have collapsed. It is arguable that it was economic as much as moral and political decay that led to the disintegration of the old Soviet command economy and its empire in 1991.
The Cold War ended because Moscow could no longer afford to fight it. The fact that politicians in the West are now talking about a new Cold War stems in part from the fact that now it can. The country that dropped to its financial knees with the collapse of the ruble in 1998 is currently awash with money which it is once more reinvesting in the so-called military industrial complex that sustained the old Soviet Union at the height of its power.
Russians, who post-Gorbachev were once welcomed as new commercial partners and political allies by the United States and Europe, are again being viewed with suspicion. The metaphor of the "Russian bear" has returned with all the fearful resonances of brute power and untrustworthiness.
From the West's point of view, Russian revanchism is evidenced by high-handed bullying tactics over gas supplies to the Ukraine and Europe, Putin's threat to resile from nuclear arms control agreements and now the warning on Thursday that a new arms race was beginning.
But the West's point of view - particularly the view of the Republican Bush administration in Washington - has been remarkably blinkered. The key blind spot was American gloating at the Soviet collapse, characterized as the US victory in the Cold war. As Yeltsin threw open the Russian economy to market reform, Western business and banking stormed in, intent on sealing their victory by buying up the commanding heights of the Russian economy. Now that the Russians spoke capitalism, they would dance to Washington's tune.
In time it proved that this invasion of capital encountered the same resistance that met the soldiers of Napoleon and Hitler. The Russian economy was just too big to be overrun at a single charge and besides, while foreign carpetbaggers and Yeltsin's cronies became wealthy, ordinary Russians saw few economic benefits.
It is the resentment of defeat and at the attempted economic occupation by the West that is now driving Russia's return toward superpower status. All the present complaints about breached contracts and high-handed behavior ignore the truth that when Russia was down and out, the West sought to profit from her humiliation.
Militarily the US plan to site anti-missile missiles in Poland and the Czech Republic is rightly seen by Moscow as a threat to Russia and nothing to do with the danger of rockets launched at Europe from Iran or North Korea. The Bush administration's pretence to the contrary is crass. It is Washington that has absurdly relaunched the arms race, at a time when Russia can afford to rejoin. If you are stupid enough to kick a bear, you can expect to see its claws.
