Today a new nation is being born. Kosovo will unilaterally declare independence from Serbia and much of the world, save Serbia and its staunch ally Russia, will quickly move to grant the new state diplomatic recognition. But this has not been an easy birth and Kosovo’s infancy will be fraught with danger.
The Serbs have foresworn the use of force but that does not mean that nationalist bigots will not seek to mount a rebellion to destabilize the vulnerable new state. This might classically be a resort to disrupting power supplies, wrecking railway lines, blowing up tunnels and committing high-profile assassinations of Kosovar Serbs who were prepared to give the new state a chance.
The aim would be to provoke heavy-handed reprisals against the Serb minority. That is why it is wise that security, currently overseen by the UN and NATO, is being passed to a 1,800-strong EU force. Serb fanatics will find it harder to claim victimization of the 120,000 ethnic Serbs with the EU involved.
In many ways Kosovo’s best course is to keep a low profile and attend to nation building. Given that its 1.8 million population is not much bigger than many medium size cities around the world, it is worrying that half the work force is unemployed. This is despite UN programs to benefit the economy. This is a dirt-poor Balkan country. Closer economic links with Albania are desirable but Albania is hardly more prosperous and has a strong criminal underworld. Kosovars should also think carefully about too close a political relationship with Tirana. Union, if it happens, should be a long way off and may never be necessary if all the Balkan countries find themselves fellow members of the EU with its own unity agenda. Above all, the Kosovars must not be triumphalist in the face of Serbian anger and dismay in Belgrade. Premier Hashim Thaci was wise on Friday to go out of his way to promise Kosovar Serbs that they would not suffer discrimination in the new country and that they should plan to play a full role in a multiethnic Kosovo. A lot of his audience did not believe him. Thaci must, therefore, be careful to match deeds with words at every opportunity. Since Milosevic’s troops were driven out in 1999, Serbs have had no practical ownership of their former province. But emotionally they have never let go of the immense nationalist and historic value that the very name Kosovo stands for. It thus behooves the new nation that is born today always to remember that it carries a name which is etched in Serbian hearts.
Serbia has said that it will take diplomatic action against governments that recognize Kosovo. If such a response damages diplomatic relations, it is hard to see how the Serbs will be anything other than losers. Serbia needs the outside world, particularly the EU, far more than the outside world needs Serbia. Nevertheless, it is important that Belgrade is always left enough “wriggle room”, so that it can accept the political reality without losing face. On this day of pride and happiness for Albanian Kosovars, Serb pain and humiliation should not be forgotten.
