The tidal wave of election victories scored by political rookie Barack Obama is threatening to swamp and sink the presidential dreams of installing another Clinton in the White House.
The often turbulent, unpredictable US presidential elections have not seen anything like this battle for the Democratic nomination to be president: A first-term senator of biracial black-white parentage sweeping in from virtual political obscurity to trounce Sen. Hillary Clinton, wife of former President Bill Clinton, and who only a year ago was considered unbeatable by any Democrat to create history as the first female US president.
Obama, 47, has had nine straight victories, capturing elections and caucuses in 23 states, while Sen. Clinton, 60, has only 13. Obama also was expected to win caucuses in Hawaii, where he lived as a youth.
Straws in the wind hint an end to Hillary Clinton’s quest to become the first female US president: The Associated Press is characterizing her as a “fading” candidate after her Tuesday defeat in the state of Wisconsin, while the presumptive Republican nominee for president. Sen. John McCain, 71, began attacking Obama’s “eloquent but empty call for change” in US policies, a sure sign McCain considers Obama his rival in the November general election, not Sen. Clinton.
Her only hope of being utterly routed is if she can win the March 4 primaries in Texas and Ohio. Defeat there would slam the door on her chances.
If Obama and McCain, indeed, face each other in November, the election would pit youth against a senior citizen; a relative newcomer to Washington versus an establishment insider; a critic of the war in Iraq who wants to remove US troops versus a hawk who would keep troops 100 years in Iraq; an outright critic of President George W. Bush’s policies versus a Bush supporter. Voters leaving the Wisconsin polls told reporters that that Hillary lost support because of negative campaign tactics of belittling Obama’s lofty speeches and her boasts of being the candidate of “solutions,” not just fancy speeches.
Except for older, less educated women, Obama has equaled or beat Sen. Hillary among all other voting groups — young voters, independents, white men, blacks, younger women.
While Sen. Hillary and Sen. McCain speak flatly and often in phrases that are mechanical and very Washington, Obama has packed auditoriums with 20,000 or more exuberant fans with his riveting rhetoric and stirring calls for hope, sacrifice and overturning a cynical Washington culture of greed and political incest.
The slugfest for the Republican and Democratic presidential nominations began in January, and is being fought state by state along with a series of televised debates.
Even most Americans don’t fully understand the processes that eventually lead up to the Republican convention in Minneapolis/St. Paul, Minnesota in September, and the Democratic convention in Denver, Colorado in August.
The process involves a combination of “caucuses, wherein voters gather briefly to discuss and decide whom they prefer among candidates, and “primary elections,” wherein voting places are open all day for voters to cast their ballots.
From this process emerge some 3,253 delegates to the Democratic convention who’re pledged to support the wining candidates. These delegates attend the national convention and vote on the political party’s nominee.
Complicating this year’s Democratic convention will be the presence of 796 “super delegates” selected because they’re local or national political party officials.
An uproar developed this week when operatives of Sen. Hillary suggested that if she fell behind Obama in actual total caucus and primary votes, they would try to convince super delegates to throw their support to Hillary. Obama forces immediately denounced the tactic as attempting to defy the popular national vote.
So, why has Sen. Hillary suffered such humiliating losses to Obama? How could a candidate who’s the wife of a popular former president and who is an intimate of the Democratic Party’s most powerful Washington factions be brought to her knees by an upstart novice and black at that?
In postmortems on the Hillary debacle, analysts cite several key factors.
• Obama’s gifted speaking skills and use of glittering phrases overshadows Hillary‘s pedestrian style.
• Obama’s appeal for “change” is a direct assault on the 1990s politics that many voters believe Bill and Hillary Clinton represent.
• Former President Clinton’s early attempts on the campaign trail to belittle and demean Obama backfired.
• Obama’s wife, Michele, is a perky, no-nonsense, witty campaigner who has mesmerized audiences and the media.
• Obama’s organization outfoxed the Hillary campaign by raising more money and using it more strategically to win state-by-state.
To win the Democratic nomination, a candidate must have 2,025 delegates. Obama as of Tuesday night had 1,294 to Hillary Clinton’s 1,234.
— Pat Murphy is a retired editor and publisher who first visited Saudi Arabia in 1974 to interview King Faisal and has visited many times since, including reporting on the Gulf War. He now lives in Ketchum, Idaho and writes for magazines and newspapers.
